Wild weather warning: Second regional cyclone of season may form next week

Forecasters are giving a "moderate" risk of another tropical cyclone forming west of Vanuatu after Wednesday. Image / Niwa

The season’s second tropical cyclone in the southwest Pacific could form up within days – but forecasters say it’s too early to tell what, if anything, this developing system may mean for New Zealand.

With the North Island’s East Coast still cleaning up Cyclone Hale’s mess, MetService’s latest tropical cyclone bulletin states a moderate risk – or a 20 to 50 per cent chance – of a system developing west of Vanuatu from Wednesday onwards.

It was expected to move eastward, across, or close to southern Vanuatu late next week.

“We’re not looking at this to start to form until around Wednesday, and if it heads down towards us, that’s still a long way off,” MetService meteorologist John Law said.

The area of risk at this point was limited to around Vanuatu, with conditions in the Coral Sea expected to be favourable for forming cyclones over the next week.

“It’s a situation that we’re obviously going to be keeping a very close eye on, but at the moment, it looks like it’s going to be very far away.”

Niwa’s start-of-season outlook predicted a “normal or elevated” risk of tropical cyclones between November and April, with the potential for one to two systems.

Each season - usually around late summer - at least one ex-tropical cyclone veers within 550km of the country, packing gale-force winds and enough moisture to drive torrential rain.

Hale’s visit last week was estimated to have caused millions of dollars in damage in Coromandel, while leaving beaches and waterways around the Tairawhiti region strewn with slash and debris.

For now, a ridge of high pressure sitting over the country was forecast to bring more hot, settled weather tomorrow, with 30C highs on the cards for Wanaka and Alexandra, Laws said.

By mid-week, MetService was forecasting isolated showers about both islands – and possibly more heavy rain for Gisborne.

“There is an area of low pressure that swings down toward northern and eastern parts of the country as we head toward the end of the week, which could potentially bring some wetter weather in places like the Coromandel, that have already seen a fair bit of it.”

“In the short-term, that’s our main concern.”