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Home / New Zealand

Say goodbye to doctors, the robots are already here

By Hannah Bolan
Daily Telegraph UK·
26 Sep, 2019 05:00 PM4 mins to read

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The robot will see you now. Photo/ supplied

The robot will see you now. Photo/ supplied

Oxford economics professor tells Hannah Boland that doctors, lawyers and architects may soon be "actively displaced" by machines

Daniel Susskind's daughter is just 18 months old and already he's fretting about her future career.

"Yes, she's young, but I look ahead," he says with a smile.

"Either she tries to do the sort of thing that machines and robots can't do, or she's able to design them. Those seem to be the only two paths."

It may seem premature but, for Susskind, the rise of the robots and how they will impact humanity is a topic that has preoccupied his thoughts for most of his adult life.

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The 32-year-old is an economics professor at Balliol College at Oxford University and co-author of the book, The Future of the Professions, which he wrote with his father.

In it, he argues that we will no longer need nor want the likes of doctors, teachers, accountants and architects to work as they did in the 20th century.

Instead, technology will step in to make the expertise of specialists available to more people than ever before. Susskind claims we're only just beginning to see the start of a dramatic shift in how technology will transform our working lives. Take Thomas Cook as an example.

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"The world changed and it turns out sitting face to face with a human being and asking them to give you advice on a week or two weeks' travel was something people didn't want to do."

But still, says Susskind, there are lessons to be learnt from the collapse. After all, "when you look at the reactions of professionals to technological change", Susskind says they have a long way to go.

For now at least, advances in technology have mostly improved how efficiently people can work, allowing them to use computer systems to communicate with patients and customers, or to speed up manufacturing processes.

But, soon, what they're likely to mean is technology "actively displacing" professionals.

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In all likelihood, there will be "increasingly capable systems and machines, either operating alone, or designed and used by people that don't look a lot like traditional lawyers or teachers or accountants, gradually taking on more and more of the activities that in the past we might have associated with those traditional professionals", says Susskind.

This may sound like a warning. For years, experts and technologists have voiced concern over the growing use of robots and artificial intelligence in the workplace.But Susskind doesn't see it this way.

In fact, he says, it is "remarkable" the positive effect such advances can have.This effect isn't just limited to blue-collar jobs.

Like his father, Richard Susskind , who spent years writing about how artificial intelligence was changing the legal sector, Daniel's focus has been broadly on white-collar jobs.It is widely accepted that factory workers will see roles go to robots.

In fact, "up to 20 million manufacturing jobs are set to be lost to robots by 2030", a recent Oxford Economics report read. But, according to Susskind, it is a myth that those jobs will be affected more than those across professions.

Even now, "there are systems that can tell whether a freckle is cancerous better than leading doctors, and software that can create bikes that are more sturdy than we could design", he says.

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"In education, more people are signing up for Harvard's online courses in a single year than attended the actual university and its entire existence." For some, this may seem frightening.

After all, say more jobs are taken over by robots, how will people get a wage if there aren't any jobs for them to do? On this, Susskind strikes a reassuring figure. "Traditionally the challenge has been how do we make sure the economic pie is large enough for everyone to live on, but in the 21st century we will be more prosperous than ever before."

With economic growth having already taken off in the past few hundred years meaning, he estimates, the next generation will be twice as rich as us - the economic pie, as it were, will be bigger.

What will then have to happen, he says, is for some "creative thinking" over how those people who don't have a job can earn money: a big task, but one that is not impossible."Technological progress makes us more prosperous than ever before, but I guess it does create imbalances that we need to think about how we can resolve."

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