Already the odds of a New Zealand side winning the inaugural Super 15 have lengthened. Every franchise has been hit by player defections and the flow of traffic offshore has not yet been stemmed.
There will be more departures before October; more reasons to be a little concerned about
the depth of quality New Zealand's teams will be able to boast next year.
Some good players have been lost in this pre-World Cup rush to Europe and Japan. Tamati Ellison, Kevin O'Neill, Rudi Wulf, Anthony Tuitavake and Sione Lauaki have all played test rugby. Leaving aside this year - a truly disastrous one for the troubled No8- Lauaki has been an integral and inspirational force for the Chiefs. In seasons past, his form has been inexorably linked with the Chiefs' - when he plays well, they play well. For all his faults and foibles, he'll be hard to replace.
As will the once-capped O'Neill. The All Black selectors cooled on him alarmingly quickly yet the Chiefs missed him terribly this year when he was injured for nearly all the campaign. They are desperate for tight forwards and O'Neill was their rock.
The Blues, even when they have proven to be barely a mid-table force, have always inspired confidence due to the presence in their back division of so many explosive and versatile players. Losing Wulf and Tuitavake leaves them light on experience, as does the decision by Paul Williams to join Sale, and they might not find it so easy to cover injuries or juggle their resources as the situation demands. They will also miss the excellent Viliami Ma'afu (leaving for Japan), who was the revelation of the season - his solid, direct work from the base of the scrum never eased.
Other players leaving include Tim Bateman and Daniel Bowden at the Crusaders as well as Ti'o Paulo. Michael Paterson, Thomas Waldrom and Peter Borlase are also on their way. Stephen Brett and Piri Weepu remain undecided, as does Joe Rokocoko.
Callum Bruce is leaving the Chiefs and that means New Zealand is losing three experienced, talented and promising midfielders - Bruce, Bowden and Bateman. But for the quirk of geography, all three would arguably be test players.
These are precisely the sorts of 'middle management' players All Black coach Graham Henry is adamant the country can't afford to lose.
The arrival of Sonny Bill Williams will at least offset some of the damage. But next year each Super 15 squad is going to contract 32 rather than 28 players and, with the season stretching from February through to July and comprising 17 qualifying games and three playoff rounds, depth is critical.
At the Crusaders, when Ryan Crotty's form dropped towards the end of the campaign, in came Daniel Bowden who was superb. When Robbie Fruean's lack of conditioning began to bite in South Africa, Bateman slotted in like the professional he is. But injuries will leave them exposed.
It's the same at the Chiefs. Mike Delany's return from injury could see him start at 10, with Stephen Donald at 12 and Richard Kahui at 13. Jackson Willison came of age this campaign but again, one injury and they won't be the same team.
Their tight five is a bigger worry. Both Culum Retallick and Romana Graham will have to play senior roles in just their second campaign, as is Ben Afeaki. This is where the strain is really starting to be felt in New Zealand rugby.
Too many players have to step up before they are ready. The fabric of each side is becoming stretched during campaigns - the depth of experience simply isn't there to ensure critical games are won.
Second fives and locks are the biggest concern and, with Paulo leaving, hooker is potentially a problem as the Crusaders might look to raid the existing talent pool, which will leave some other teams short.
"If you dilute the number of experienced players too much it becomes too difficult to build the type of team and culture that you really want," says Waikato chief executive Graham Bowen. "I think you can push through two or three young players into Super Rugby a bit earlier than expected but I don't think you can do that with five or six players at one time."
Waikato will feel the loss of O'Neill, Bruce and Lauaki harder than the Chiefs as they have even less experience in their squad.
Waikato, after an extensive search locally and nationally, recruited offshore to bolster their squad. They have brought back former player Sosene Anesi from the Waratahs and Christian Lealiifano from the Brumbies.
"We could have found players [in New Zealand], but they would not have been of the same quality or experience. We really needed senior players who could develop those around them quickly.
"We have Trent Renata who is a first five with considerable potential and can also play at fullback. We felt he would really benefit from having Christian around and likewise with Sosene. We have a number of promising wings who are only 19-20 yearsold and need an elder statesman to help them."
It's much the same at Auckland where Brent Ward and Ben Atiga have been brought back and Toby Morland and Matt Berquist recruited to help a young, exciting team find their feet.
Having been caught out by the loss of 15 players in 2007, Auckland, and by extension the Blues, have been aware of how quickly a side can lose its essence, depth and quality. That has led to the whole talent identification and player development programme coming under scrutiny in the last year to try and improve the likelihood of building better, more complete players.
Assistant coach of Auckland, Andrew Strawbridge, says the union's goal is robust development plans that fast-track the tactical and technical understanding of young players beyond what they need for provincial rugby. He points to Sam Whitelock and Aaron Cruden as examples of how quickly players progress through the ranks - with the former part of the national under-20 team in 2008 and the latter just last year.
"I'm much more comfortable with our development programmes now than I was 12 months ago," he said. "I think though I'm probably more comfortable about next year being the year some of those players come through."
So Auckland think their home developed talent will push for Super Rugby places in 2012 and Waikato had to go offshore to plug gaps in their squad. The Hurricanes are in good shape and have aready-made replacement for Ellison in New Zealand under- 20 wing Julian Savea. The Crusaders will rely on Canterbury coming up with a few players, as they always do, and will pinch a few off the other New Zealand teams - like Adam Thomson and Israel Dagg. The Highlanders will take whatever they are given.
It doesn't bode well. The provincial competition will provide some new heroes and fill some of the Super 15 gaps.
But, even if a few stars do emerge, it still seems inevitable the Chiefs' tight five could again be relatively weak. The Blues could be underpowered at first five (as always) and short of a few outside backs, while the Crusaders, even with Sonny Bill, might be looking for more in their midfield and a hooker.
It's a worry, and Bowen says he feels almost certain that franchises will have no choice but to take up their quota of two overseas players each. That's what it's come to - hoping the Australians or the South Africans, maybe even the English, can save New Zealand's teams from mediocrity.
GOINGS AND COMINGS
BLUES
* Definitely Leaving
Anthony Tuitavake (Japan), George Pisi (Taranaki), Rudi Wulf (Toulon), Viliami Ma'afu (Japan).
* Undecided
Stephen Brett, Serge Lilo, Daniel Kirkpatrick, Ali Williams (Still injured).
* Recruited
Daniel Braid.
* Positions of Need
Outside Backs/ First Five/ Halfback.
* Young Player to Watch in ITM CUP
Bryce Heem (Auckland).
CHIEFS
* Definitely Leaving
Kevin O'Neill (Rebels), Sione Lauaki (Montferrand), Callum Bruce (Japan).
* Undecided
Ben Afeaki, Jared Hoeata.
* Recruited
Sosene Anesi (Waikato), Christian Lealiifano (Waikato to return to Brumbies).
* Positions of Need
Prop/Lock/Midfield.
* Young Player to Watch in ITM CUP
Tawera Kerr-Barlow.
HURRICANES
* Definitely Leaving
Michael Paterson (Cardiff), Tamati Ellison (Japan).
* Recruited
James Broadhurst, Tyson Keats.
* Positions of Need
None.
* Young Player to Watch in ITM CUP
Julian Savea.
CRUSADERS
* Definitely Leaving
Ti'o Paulo (Montferrand), Daniel Bowden (London Irish), Tim Bateman (Japan), Peter Borlase (Munster), Thomas Waldrom (Leicester).
* Recruited
Sonny Bill Williams.
* Positions of Need
Loose Forward/Second five.
* Young Player to Watch in ITM CUP
Tyler Bleyendaal.
HIGHLANDERS
* Undecided
Jamie Mackintosh, Tom Donnelly, Adam Thomson, Israel Dagg, Michael Hobbs, Matt Berquist.
* Recruited
Ben Smith has re-signed.
* Positions of Need
Loose Forward/Halfback/Inside backs.
* Young Player to Watch in ITM CUP
Hayden Parker.
Rugby: Supermarket
Sione Lauaki is on his way to France next season. Photo / Christine Cornege
Already the odds of a New Zealand side winning the inaugural Super 15 have lengthened. Every franchise has been hit by player defections and the flow of traffic offshore has not yet been stemmed.
There will be more departures before October; more reasons to be a little concerned about
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.
