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Home / New Zealand

Rodney Hide: Things will change...but stay the same

Rodney Hide
By Rodney Hide
Herald on Sunday·
26 Dec, 2015 07:44 PM3 mins to read

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Prime Minister John Key. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Prime Minister John Key. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Rodney Hide
Opinion by Rodney HideLearn more

Amazingly, all the parties end the year in a good spot. National remains top-of-the-pops, amazing after seven years in office. More amazing, it seems peace has broken out in the Labour Party.

Andrew Little has settled the party down and there's no talk of a leadership change.

Winston Peters won Northland to prove he still has it and can still surprise.

The Greens have freshened themselves with new co-leader James Shaw, who is proving he could work with National. That is critical to empower the Greens and outfox Peters.

Lone Act MP David Seymour ended the year impressing everyone, much to their surprise. And the Maori Party is still there and still working their electorates.

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I almost forgot Peter Dunne. He remains a minister. He's been an MP longer than any other minister and was a serving minister when John Key first became Prime Minister.

The other amazing thing is how stable our politics has become. The parties have grown comfortable with their roles and us with them.

Colin Craig set about to shake it up but only succeeded in shaking out himself.

Throughout the year, we were told it was all about to change for Key and National. I might have been guilty of saying that myself.

But it never did. The great ship of National steamed on, no matter the troubled water. Even losing the true-blue seat of Northland didn't rattle the cutlery or spill the tea.

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In the New Year those of us in the commentating business will continue to declare tipping points and a change. And one day we will be right. Not everything lasts forever, not even Dunne.

My end of year prediction looks even further out. Our next government will be a National-Green one with Peters sidelined and furious.

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Under Shaw's leadership, the Greens are quietly repositioning. They joined National in hailing the climate change agreement concluded in Paris.

In that one moment they were no longer outsiders throwing rocks at those inside. They were responsible, stately and showing an ability to compromise and work with others.

It makes sense. The Greens need leverage to achieve policy. They have none if their only option is Labour. They need to sidle quietly up to National. And they are.

Key for a fourth term will pay their price. It will be for a comprehensive tax on greenhouse gas emissions, including agriculture. National in its cunning will make sure the tax takes more than three years to implement.

The election of Shaw will prove a tipping point but one we never noticed. Dunne will remain in office like the cabinet table and chairs. And Peters will be the angry man in opposition.

Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose.

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