RNZ-Reid Research poll: Coalition in front as Labour gains ground

The NZ First, National and Act coalition is holding on to a slim lead, according to the lastest political poll.

By Craig McCulloch, RNZ

The new RNZ-Reid Research Poll shows the political race has tightened since the election, but the coalition parties are still clinging on to a slim lead.

If replicated in a general election, the result would return National, Act and NZ First to power with 62 seats out of 120, down from their existing 67 of 123.

It is the first public poll since early February to put the centre-right bloc ahead of the centre-left opposition parties.

National registered 32.9% of the party vote, securing its place as the most popular party, but with Labour nipping at its heels on 32.3%.

The coalition’s smaller parties both edged up from their election night result with Act on 9.4% and NZ First on 7.2%.

Labour’s presumed support partners – the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori – polled at 10% and 5% respectively.

Undecided or non-voters made up 6.1% of those polled.

The poll – which ran from March 21 to 27 – surveyed 1000 eligible voters using an online panel and had a maximum margin of error of 3.1%.

The result would give 41 seats to National, down from the 48 it holds now. Act would get 12 seats and NZ First nine, both up one from the election.

Together, that’s 62 seats – a two-seat majority.

On the left, Labour would secure 40 seats (up six), the Greens 12 (down three) and Te Pāti Māori six (no change), a combined 58 seats.

The poll was conducted the week after Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s trade mission in India and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters’ meeting with his counterpart in the United States.

Commentators widely described that week as a positive one for the coalition after a string of negative headlines.

Asked about the country’s prospects, 43.5% of respondents said New Zealand was heading in the right direction under the current Government, while 40.6% said the wrong direction.

Luxon’s personal approval rating lagged that of Labour leader Chris Hipkins: 38.1% of voters said Luxon was performing “very well” or “fairly well” in his role compared to 42% who said “very poorly” or “fairly poorly”, giving Luxon a net result of negative 3.9%.

Hipkins scored a positive net result of 12.3% – with 41.9% declaring he had performed well and 29.6% poorly.

In the preferred prime minister stakes, however, Luxon held the top slot at 21.9%, with Labour’s Hipkins just behind on 20.9%.

NZ First’s Peters was in third place on 7.9%, followed by Act’s David Seymour on 6.8% and the Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick on 6.1%.

Both Te Pāti Māori’s Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke and National’s Chris Bishop appeared for their first time in a Reid Research poll on 1.2% and 1% respectively.

This poll of 1000 people was conducted by Reid Research, using quota sampling and weighting to ensure representative cross section by age, gender and geography. The poll was conducted through online interviews between 21-27 March 2025 and has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence level.

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