KEY POINTS:
A Pacific expert is warning that riots in Tonga and the Solomon Islands targeting Chinese immigrants could flare up elsewhere - most likely in Fiji and Vanuatu.
And China's involvement in the Pacific could increase if it decides to protect its citizens more, Associate Professor John Henderson of
Canterbury University told Parliament's foreign affairs select committee yesterday.
The MPs are holding an inquiry into NZ's relations with South Pacific countries.
Eight people died during the riots last year in the Tongan capital, Nuku'alofa. Businesses and homes were burned and looted after tensions sparked by calls for political reform.
According to some, Tongan business owners used the riot as an excuse to target their more successful Chinese rivals.
In April riots and widespread looting in the Solomon Islands were sparked by the election of Snyder Rini as prime minister. Some claimed Asian influence on elections.
China has offered a US$56 million ($71.3 million) soft loan to rebuild.
"My worry and indeed my prediction is that we have not seen the last of this," Professor Henderson said.
"The same sort of occurrence could happen most likely in Vanuatu ... and indeed in Fiji itself where it's estimated now there are over 20,000 Chinese.
"Behind this is the anxiety, particularly by the Pacific Island traders, that their livelihood is being taken away by Chinese traders coming in, often getting in by buying political privileges, playing a role in rigging elections and cutting the locals out of the action, not being sensitive to the local customs and cultural practices, and in that sense firing up the sort of situation you saw in Honiara and Nuku'alofa."
In his submission, Professor Henderson said the need to protect its overseas community could be used by China as a justification for ramping up its military presence in the region.
New Zealand and Australia's efforts post-riots had made that unnecessary so far.
Professor Henderson said the "stakes are just not high enough" for China to change its approach. The major power was most interested in Papua New Guinea because its mineral resources and economic interests were likely to grow more than political ones.
Professor Henderson said the continued diplomatic rivalry between Taiwan and China was "a major destabilising" element.
"From New Zealand's perspective a speedy and peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue would be the best-case scenario.
"Otherwise there is a high likelihood that the PRC-ROC [Taiwan-China] rivalry will continue to put fuel on the fire of existing conflicts in the Pacific and the potential cost to New Zealand will be very high."
Illegal immigrants were also a concern.
- NZPA