NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / New Zealand

Revealed: Parts of NZ to be hit hardest by our next big quake

Jamie Morton
By Jamie Morton
Multimedia Journalist·NZ Herald·
11 Jul, 2019 01:07 AM3 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

GNS Science makes field observations of one of the fault ruptures following the Kaikoura Earthquake.

Clues scratched into rock may help reveal where big quakes in the future will strike hardest.

The new findings, published this week, could prove useful in helping better prepare the country for big shakes from some of our most hazardous faults – including the massive Alpine Fault.

"Large faults are like a heavyweight boxer - you know they are going to pack a wallop," said Russ Van Dissen, a GNS Science earthquake geologist and co-author of the paper.

"So if you want to prepare yourself, it's helpful to know which direction the energy is going to coming from."

The study, led by Victoria University PhD student Jesse Kearse, suggested the warning signs could be out there waiting to be found, in the form of scratch lines left in rock faces.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

These markings, or striations, have been observed in fault rock faces for decades – but the new study proved the first time that scientists had been able to link the shape of them, and the direction in which a fault propagated, or "un-zipped", during a quake.

This was crucial as the direction of this un-zipping had much to do with where seismic energy was focused.

The findings stemmed from an analysis of the Kekerengu Fault, which runs from North Canterbury through Marlborough and out to sea, and tore open the countryside when it violently ruptured during the 7.8 Kaikoura Earthquake.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The phenomenon of "directivity" was clearly evident during the November 2016 event, with Wellington experiencing much stronger ground shaking than Christchurch even though the earthquake epicentre was closer to Christchurch.

This was a result of the south-to-north direction of the rupture, which sent a large amount of seismic energy to the north.

Van Dissen saw a good reason to go hunting for more striations.

"If scientists can confidently deduce past directions of fault rupture propagation, that will improve the characterisation of damaging earthquake ground shaking."

Discover more

Business

Best of 2019: The 40 most powerful people on the NZ technology scene

23 Dec 05:00 AM
Travel

Massive crack becomes bizarre tourist attraction

10 Jul 10:40 PM
New Zealand

Wild weather: Downpours, lightning and thunder surging north

13 Jul 10:30 PM

If it could be shown that the South Island's Alpine Fault in the South Island had ruptured a number of times in a certain direction – either north-to-south, or south-to-north – then that information could be used to better plan for future earthquakes, and in designing more resilient buildings and infrastructure.

Presently, there's no way to predict where, when, or with what force a large earthquake will be unleashed in the future.

As quakes begin on faults often buried kilometres below the surface, it's extremely difficult for scientists to know how close these faults are to failing in an earthquake.

The best technology that agencies had to work with today were earthquake early warning systems – used overseas but not yet here – that could give a few minutes' warning.

Beyond that, scientists could give "earthquake forecasts", which gave a rough probability of something happening over a certain period of time.

The Alpine Fault, for example, has a 30 per cent probability of rupturing in the next 50 years.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

While the new findings represented a hypothesis that needed to be further tested, they could also prove a potentially useful tool.

"It enables us to bring a more nuanced approach to the way we analyse past fault ruptures and better estimate future ground shaking," van Dissen said.

"Maybe instead of digging up softer sites along faults and looking for material to radiocarbon date, scientists will go to bedrock sites specifically to look for these striations. That wouldn't have happened in the past as there was no reason to do it."

The other authors of the study, published in the scientific journal Geology, were Yoshihiro Kaneko of GNS Science and Professor Tim Little of Victoria University.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from New Zealand

New Zealand

'A let-down': Iwi challenges DoC, minister over ski field deals

18 Jun 09:18 AM
New Zealand

Police investigating after body found in Christchurch carpark

18 Jun 09:17 AM
New ZealandUpdated

Numbers revealed for tonight's $25m Powerball jackpot

18 Jun 08:23 AM

Jono and Ben brew up a tea-fuelled adventure in Sri Lanka

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from New Zealand

'A let-down': Iwi challenges DoC, minister over ski field deals

'A let-down': Iwi challenges DoC, minister over ski field deals

18 Jun 09:18 AM

They allege the Crown ignored Treaty obligations by not engaging with them.

Police investigating after body found in Christchurch carpark

Police investigating after body found in Christchurch carpark

18 Jun 09:17 AM
Numbers revealed for tonight's $25m Powerball jackpot

Numbers revealed for tonight's $25m Powerball jackpot

18 Jun 08:23 AM
Premium
Has Tory Whanau's experience put women off running for mayor?

Has Tory Whanau's experience put women off running for mayor?

18 Jun 07:26 AM
Help for those helping hardest-hit
sponsored

Help for those helping hardest-hit

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP