KEY POINTS:
David Benson-Pope's resignation from the Cabinet yesterday may be the catalyst for a significant reshuffle in the next stage of Labour's renewal that could see some of Helen Clark's closest friends axed.
The Prime Minister is planning a reshuffle - and there is money on it happening early
next year.
But Mr Benson-Pope's resignation presents her with options: a moderate shuffle now and a bigger one later, a big one now and possibly a smaller one next year - or just the one.
Helen Clark said this week that she had told no one yet of her thinking about the reshuffle.
But in the drive for renewal of the party, major changes are expected before next year's election.
Her friends such as Auckland Central MP and Auckland Issues Minister Judith Tizard and Taupo MP and Justice Minister Mark Burton are considered most likely to lose out.
Mr Benson-Pope's portfolios are now being baby-sat: Environment by Energy Minister David Parker and Social Development by Education Minister Steve Maharey.
Mr Benson-Pope had no option but to resign after the Prime Minister lost confidence in him over the Madeleine Setchell employment issue.
Helen Clark said last night he had made a complete mess of the situation and needed to reflect on whether he stayed in Parliament. She was also disappointed Environment Ministry chief executive Hugh Logan had not declared to the State Services Commission earlier the conversation in which Mr Benson-Pope had commented on Ms Setchell.
However, Mr Benson-Pope would concede nothing yesterday, saying he did not believe he had done anything inappropriate.
He said apart from his family, there was nothing more important to him than the continued success of the Clark Government "and it is for that reason I take this step today".
He is reported to have said he will seek re-selection, although he will be 58 by the next polling day.
But under the drive for renewal, and a bruising political experience, Mr Benson-Pope is expected to reconsider before Labour's candidate selection programme begins in October.
One of the options would be to promote list MPs Shane Jones and Maryan Street into the Cabinet within weeks. The departure of Associate Tourism Minister Dover Samuels would create a second vacancy in the ministry and Charles Chauvel could replace Ms Tizard outside Cabinet. Within the Cabinet, Clayton Cosgrove, David Cunliffe and Chris Carter are tipped for wider responsibilities and Nanaia Mahuta has made a strong impression.
Annette King (Transport) and Trevor Mallard (Economic Development) are regarded as under-worked while a question marks hang over the performance of Health Minister Pete Hodgson.
Complicating issues are the possible departures of Speaker Margaret Wilson, tipped to leave before the term is up, and Education Minister Steve Maharey, who is thought to be in the running for the post of vice-chancellor at Massey University.
Mr Benson-Pope was the 10th minister to either stand aside temporarily or permanently under the Clark Government. The others: Dover Samuels, Ruth Dyson, Marian Hobbs, Phillida Bunkle, Harry Duynhoven, Lianne Dalziel, Tariana Turia, John Tamihere, and Taito Phillip Field.
Former Labour Prime Minister Mike Moore said yesterday: "The hardest job in politics is shooting the wounded, particularly when they're your best friends and loyal supporters.
"Helen Clark is brilliant at this. She lets them bleed, they become anaemic and can't fight back and then she puts the pillow over their heads.
"I think Helen has sacked or lost more ministers than any other prime minister in history."