"That would place some of it on track for Mayor Island (Tuhua), if conditions remain as forecast.
"However, it is important to note that this is based on today's conditions and the trajectory could change. We will be monitoring its progress closely.''
The oil had likely escaped from Rena's duct keel, the tunnel running the length of the vessel housing pipework and other service equipment, said Captain van Wijngaarden.
"This overnight spillage is a combination of tidal movement _ seawater effectively plugs gaps in the duct keel but low tide exposes those gaps _ and the reducing buoyancy of the vessel as we remove oil from above the waterline.''
He said oil recovery teams on vessels at the scene had been using booms to contain the oil so it can be skimmed off the water.
Oil continues to be pumped from Rena, with options being explored for speeding up removal from the main tank.
It is hoped to have another pump in action this afternoon to remove oil from the two settling tanks, which have about 220 tonnes of oil between them.
As of yesterday afternoon, 256 tonnes of the estimated 1700 tonnes on board the ship had been pumped onto the tanker Awanuia.
Swimmers and surfers can today make the most of the water after a three kilometre stretch of beach from Mount Maunganui to Tay Street opened for public swimming.
Captain van Wijngaarden said people should still keep an eye out for oil contamination.
Hundreds of iwi members, Defence Force personnel and volunteers are continuing with beach cleaning efforts today along the coastline from Mount Maunganui to Waihau Bay.