Rain may be on way for Christmas day

Our national weather forecaster is cautiously pessimistic about the chances of a fine day this Christmas - but it's too uncertain to say for sure yet whether the big day will be sunny.

The MetService is monitoring an unsettled weather pattern due to hit Christmas week, bringing with it uncertainty whether outdoor celebrations would be an option this holiday.

"It's still feeling uncertain about what's going be forecast for Christmas Day," said meteorologist Ciaran Doolin.

"At the moment it's something we're monitoring and we're going to finesse as we get close to the day itself.

"It's not looking that good at the moment but there is uncertainty."

Doolin said he knew people wanted to have a definite answer, but MetService couldn't provide one this far out from the actual day.

Previous predictions made by Weatherwatch said models indicated a 60 per cent chance of fine weather across the country on December 25.

Since 2007 it has only rained on four Christmas Days in Auckland, three in Christchurch, and two in Wellington.

All things going well and Christmas will take its cue from this weekend's weather, which is forecast to be warm and mainly dry and sunny.