Rachel Smalley: Why is National dumbing down a smart man in PM Bill English?

Our latest opinion poll is out. The Herald-ZB-Kantar TNS poll asked who was most capable of running the country.

Bill English tops the list with 45 per cent. Andrew Little, when he was leader, sat on 10 per cent. Jacinda Ardern now sits on 32 per cent.

She's got a way to go, but she's very much in the fight, and she's ahead of him in Wellington. They love Ardern in the capital.

Who does she rate well with? What age group in particular? Those aged 29 and under. No surprises there: she's snatched the youth vote.

In every other age group, Bill English is ahead - and remember it's the over-29s who are most likely to vote.

But National could muck this up, I think.

And I'll tell you why: because they're not sticking to their knitting.

And that's particularly obvious if you watch the news at night. The campaign strategy, in part, seems to be to turn English into a John Key. And he's not Key.

He's Bill English, the man who got us through the global financial crisis. A smart man. A numbers man. The man who was running the country in the John Key era. And that's what allowed Key to be the showman - to connect with Kiwis, to crack a few jokes and flip a few sausies at the local charity barbie, or to play a round of golf with Obama. He could do all of that because English was behind the scenes, running the country.

And when I watched the 6pm news I thought National was potentially making a fatal mistake trying to - dare I say it - dumb down the prime minister.

There he was on the telly, suit jacket and tie off, faffing about in front of the L&P bottle in Paeroa. He'll have an advisor who'll be telling him to ditch the tie, or ditch the jacket ... it's all part of trying to make him more relatable to New Zealanders, I imagine. That will be the plan. And that's a dangerous plan. You can't force it. If you force it, you lose your authenticity - and then you're in trouble.

National seems a bit panicked by the rise of Ardern, and that happens when you're top dog and suddenly, from nowhere, your popularity and your autonomy is being challenged. You start trying to match your opponent on what you perceive is making them successful. In Ardern's case, that's her likeability and that fact that she resonates and connects with people.

Bill English can't match Jacinda Ardern at her game - personality politics - but he shouldn't try to. He's not going to suddenly win over the youth who worship her, many of whom won't be able to name a single Labour policy. He can't win that fight.

So National's strategists should make sure English sticks to what he knows and what he's good at - and that's running the country and running the economy. Don't make him prance around for the cameras. He's the statesman of this election, so portray him as such. Safe. Reliable. Smart. Stable. Experienced.

Getting to number one is tough. It's even tougher staying there, but turning English into a performing seal who's cracking dad jokes and putting spaghetti on his pizza is not the way to do it.

This is where the Nats have to be so careful. If they want to win this election, they've got to stay in their lane because if they don't, their panicked strategy could have the reverse effect. And if they get it wrong, they could do what many would have thought inconceivable a month ago - there's every chance they could kill Bill.

Listen to Rachel Smalley from 5am-6am each weekday on Newstalk ZB.