Our sun during what scientists call a solar minumum. Photo / Nasa
That lucky old sun ain't got nothing to do this summer ... except keep us warm.
Our star has been having a quiet time lately. Its surface has shown few of the active spots that keep scientists busy, and the "solar wind" radiation that streams from it is
at a 50-year low.
When Nasa took this photo, the sun could muster only one spot of surface activity for the satellite cameras.
American scientists call this lack of activity a "solar minimum".
But New Zealand's weather forecasters believe the sun will be turning on the heat for us this summer.
They say spring and early summer are likely to be settled and drier than normal.
And they are predicting above-average temperatures all over the country.
The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research's seasonal climate outlook for October to December forecasts below normal or near normal rainfall throughout the country.
But NIWA chief scientist David Wratt hedged his bets, saying people should not rule out the possibility of wet periods.
The average rainfall for Auckland is 76mm in October, 80mm in November and 79mm in December.
Auckland's average temperature is 14.5C in October, 16C in November and 18C in December.
Sea surface temperatures - which take longer to go up than those on land - are expected to remain near normal.
The barometer is likely to be higher than usual, especially in the South Island, resulting in lighter winds than usual and periods of easterlies affecting the North Island.
This means that the westerly gales typical of October and November are likely to be less frequent than usual.
The cyclone season for the southwest Pacific begins in November. Niwa says there is an 80 per cent chance of an ex-tropical cyclone - a cyclone which started in the tropics and has turned into a low pressure storm by the time it reaches New Zealand - passing within 500km of the country between November and May.
This chance is slightly higher than normal. The districts at highest risk are Northland and Gisborne.
