By SIMON COLLINS
Reported child sex abuse cases have plunged dramatically in the past decade.
The Starship hospital, the Accident Compensation Corporation and Child, Youth and Family Services tell of major drops in the number brought to their attention.
There have also been fewer convictions for sex crimes against victims aged under 17.
The figures follow a spectacular rise in the number of cases a decade ago and are in line with a drop of more than a third in America.
But New Zealand experts, like their United States counterparts, do not know for certain why there are now fewer cases.
Dr Patrick Kelly, clinical director of the Starship child abuse team, told the Weekend Herald: "Whether there has been a change in awareness or a shift in emphasis is hard to know.
"Perhaps the pendulum went right up there to people being very aware of it and reporting perhaps sometimes when it was not really necessary, and now perhaps it's equalising out a little bit."
Others such as Trish Grant, senior advocate for the Commissioner for Children's office, say the figures are encouraging, even if the reason is not clear.
"It could be a good sign. I'm cautiously optimistic."
The New Zealand figures show:
* Referrals of sexually abused children to the Starship dropped from 700 to 300 in the six years to 2000.
* Findings by Child, Youth and Family of child sex abuse fell 20 per cent to 1399 from 1997 to June 2000.
* Convictions for sex offences against under-17s almost halved to 1173 in the four years to 2000.
* Sexual abuse claims to the ACC dropped from 10,892 in 1992-93 to a low of 4872 in 1999-2000, although they rose slightly in the year to last June.
Four out of five ACC claims were adults reporting childhood abuse.
Social Services Minister Steve Maharey said that while the decline was pleasing, the amount of child abuse was still unacceptable.
"Before we could think this was a trend, we would need to go through some more years yet and try to be able to explain why it is happening."
A Child, Youth and Family spokesman, Stephen Ward, said all branches had been asked to report on the trends after Dr Kelly brought them to the agency's attention.
"He contacted us about it late last year ... asking whether the results had anything to do with our referral pattern.
"There hasn't been any change in our policy."
Referrals to Starship's child abuse units for physical abuse and neglect have fluctuated throughout the 1994-2000 period between 170 and 270 a year, while the sexual abuse cases dropped consistently from 700 in 1994 to 550, 565, 500, 440, 410 and 300 in the subsequent years.
Dr Kelly said the rise in sex abuse cases in the period to 1994 was clearly a change in people's willingness to report incidents rather than a real increase in the amount of abuse.
"The child abuse team at Starship in the mid-1980s were hardly seeing a dozen cases a year, yet in 1994 we were seeing 700 referrals. Some of that obviously has been an increase in reporting."
He said there was considerable discussion in the US about the drop in substantiated child sex abuse cases there from a peak of 150,000 in 1992 to 90,000 in 1999.
But in New Zealand, workers at the grassroots see no signs of real change.
Doctors for Sexual Abuse Care said the prevalence of reported sexual abuse "remains pretty stable".
The Safe Network, which treats sex offenders in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch, said referrals were "at least constant if not slightly rising".
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