Push for $3.6b electric rail plan

Auckland is expected to push the Government this week for an electric rail system costing up to $3.6 billion over 25 years amid signs that ministers are warming to the idea.

The Auckland Regional Council and its transport authority subsidiary will tomorrow issue a plan for electrifying the rail network between Swanson and Papakura and equipping it with new trains by 2013-14.

That would allow patronage to treble to 15.2 million passenger trips a year by 2016 and provide a platform for 30 million by 2030, says a council staff report.

Subject to approval by the council and the Government as financial partners, trains would ultimately run every 10 minutes.

That would push the operating cost over 25 years to $2.146 billion, eclipsing a capital spending bill of $1.452 billion for electrifying the network and buying new trains.

Even a "base case" expansion already approved by the Government, including duplication of the western line and a new spur link to Manukau City as well as remodelling the Newmarket junction, would cost $2.156 billion in capital and operating costs over 25 years.

The Auckland Regional Transport Authority's rail development plan, which was given an economic assessment by independent consultants, calculates that this would provide capacity for only about seven million passenger trips a year.

That threshold would be reached by 2011 at the latest, following a 32 per cent increase in rail patronage in the past year to just over five million trips.

Given a 10-minute frequency target, the cost of improving and running the rail network to achieve that with new diesel rather than electric trains would cost almost $3.5 billion over 25 years - just $106 million less than going electric.

Rising oil prices and benefits such as those arising from greater urban intensification around an environmentally cleaner electric network may even tip the economic balance in favour of that option, the regional transport authority believes.

Electric traction is also said to allow superior train-running performance, providing for an even greater intensification of services, and could ultimately allow for a rail loop through a tunnel under Albert St between Britomart and Mt Eden.

Late last year, Finance Minister Michael Cullen and the Transport Minister at the time, David Parker, said they did not see rail electrification as a priority for Government funding in the short term.

But they indicated a willingness to consider a business case for it.

ARC chairman Mike Lee said last night that the region had since been working "constructively" with Dr Cullen and Mr Parker's successor as Transport Minister, Annette King. He got a letter on Friday from the two in which, without committing themselves to electrification, they had been "encouraging about getting the plan and moving the process ahead".

It is understood record monthly patronage figures exceeding 500,000 passengers, first in March and then last month, have made a strong impression in Wellington.

The first move towards official regional council approval of the plan is tomorrow, when its transport policy committee considers the staff recommendation to back it.

The council has already voted in principle to underwrite a 40-year loan for a half-share of the capital cost of electrification, subject to its approval of the plan and to Government agreement to pay the other half.

But that was based on a capital cost estimate of about $500 million for electric trains running every 15 minutes - rather than what has since emerged as the regional transport authority's preferred 10-minute option for reaching the annual target by 2030 of 30 million trips.

The regional council staff report now says the council would have to raise a loan of between $250 million and $400 million for its half-share of electrification.