Proportion of Asian Kiwis set to double

The face of New Zealand is set to become sharply less European and more Asian.

The latest projections from Statistics New Zealand forecast that Europeans will drop from 79 per cent of the population in 2001 to 70 per cent by 2021.

The proportion of Asians will double from 7 per cent to 15 per cent. There will also be smaller increases in Maori and Pacific Islanders.

The projections point to an even bigger leap in the Asian population than in the last predictions in 2002.

The earlier projections under-estimated the birth rate, marginally underestimated improved longevity and massively underestimated Asian immigration in the last three years.

New Zealand had a net gain of 57,807 immigrants from Asia in the three years to March 31.

But ironically, the latest predictions come just as that gain is rapidly shrinking. The net gain of 32,655 in the year to March 2003 halved to 17,689 a year later and has more than halved again to just 7463 in the latest year.

A population expert at Waikato University, Indian-born Dr Arunachalam Dharmalingam, said the basis of the new projections - a long-term net inflow of 14,000 Asian migrants a year - was no longer realistic.

"I wouldn't place too much weight on this projection of 14,000 a year for the next 20 years," Dr Dharmalingam said.

"You can't even say what's going to happen for the next five years or 10 years, and 14,000 seems to me to be too high to be realistic. Something around 5000 to 10,000 is a magic figure I think fits the bill."

He said New Zealand faced increasing competition for skilled migrants from the United States, Canada and Australia, which were all seeking immigrants to offset their ageing domestic populations.

"I am not sure whether we will be able to compete with those countries and attract those 14,000 people a year unless those countries close their doors, which is happening in the United Kingdom right now," Dr Dharmalingam said..

However, even Statistics New Zealand's alternative "low" projection of a net gain of only 8000 Asian migrants a year would see the Asian share of the total population grow from 7 per cent in 2001 to 12 per cent by 2021.

European would be 73 per cent, Maori 17 per cent and Pacific Island 9 per cent.

In terms of actual numbers of people, the official projections forecast a 145 per cent jump in the Asian population from 270,000 in 2001 to 670,000 by 2021.

The Pacific population is forecast to grow by 59 per cent to 420,000, Maori by 29 per cent to 760,000 and Europeans by just 5 per cent to 3.23 million.

The total population is forecast to grow by 18 per cent to 4.6 million.

The individual ethnic groups add up to more than this because about half a million people by 2021 are expected to claim mixed ethnic backgrounds.