The property market is cooling. Houses are taking longer to sell and going for less. But some areas will thrive in difficult conditions. We get the experts' top tips for 2008's hot spots in Auckland and beyond.
KEY POINTS:
You'll have to go further for Auckland's best property deals next year, with experts tipping the outlying suburbs to be among the hot spots.
Parts of sometimes-maligned west and south Auckland are among the areas predicted to provide the best value in the cooling market, with little action
expected in the central suburbs.
Kieran Trass - who runs property-buying and investing-advice site suburbwatch.co.nz - said the trend of declining values was affecting about half the city's suburbs, with the other half still rising.
But he warned if sales volumes dropped any further from their current level, "we might end up with no hot spots in Auckland next year at all".
Bucklands Beach was one area unlikely to be affected by a drop in sales volumes, and Trass was surprised by its growth over recent months.
He said there were more sales in the "superior area" - where many properties had sea views - than this time last year.
"So much for a slump in Bucklands Beach," said Trass.
"In the past two months, values have increased by 5 per cent, and that will continue into 2008."
Moving from east to west, other value-growth areas identified by Trass were Avondale, New Lynn and Henderson. All three were on the western rail route, and Trass picked Avondale as central Auckland's only spot for value growth.
"Values are likely to continue to rise here for the next three to six months."
Further west, New Lynn was a "relatively affordable area", he said.
"It's not too far from central Auckland, it has got the rail going through which is a real bonus, and it has a big shopping centre," Trass explained.
"And you can still buy a three-bedroom house there for around the $350,000 mark."
Looking south, various parts of Manukau were set to continue as hot spots, said Trass, although value growth was likely to be at the lower end of the scale.
Harcourts chief executive Bryan Thomson said a new subdivision in the Flatbush area of Manukau was set to make it a popular spot, with "greatly increased population growth in the area and the formation of a strong, new community".
Closer to the city centre, the Stonefields development in the old Mt Wellington quarry was set to boom.
Kingsley Homes' sales manager, Craig Champness, said one five-bedroom, three-car garage home on a "reasonable section" had already sold for $1 million.
The new development will include a primary school, about 2900 dwellings - including apartments, terraced housing and detached houses - commercial buildings and a retail area.
Sources also predicted further growth in Ellerslie, which was appealing because of its good transport links to the CBD.
Across the harbour bridge, one North Shore real estate agent said the extension of the northern motorway would make it easier for commuters to travel to the city.
He said it would create a lot of interest around the Albany basin, and in outlying towns such as Warkworth and beachside communities.
Rounding out the top 10 suburbs picked by our experts was perennial favourite Waiheke Island.
Quotable Value spokesman Jonno Ingerson said it was probably the only one of 12 areas to survive the 1998-2001 slump and would perform equally well in the latest dip.
Preliminary QV analysis showed Waiheke maintaining higher sales prices in the face of decline in other areas, but Ingerson warned it was too early to make a conclusive call.
Meanwhile, central suburb homeowners shouldn't despair.
Thomson said traditionally high-value areas, such as Ponsonby, Parnell, Remuera and Newmarket, would remain good value because of their proximity to entertainment and business opportunities.
The top 10
Bucklands Beach
Avondale
New Lynn
Henderson
Manukau
Flatbush
Stonefields
Ellerslie
Albany
Waiheke Island