Polls show dead heat between coalitions

The polls point toward a dead heat tomorrow. Projecting the trend from the beginning of the year through to election day gives a combination of National, New Zealand First and United Future exactly the same score as a combination of Labour, Jim Anderton, Greens and United Future.

The immediate past picture actually gives a lead to Helen Clark: averaging the three polls published last night on TV1 and TV3 and this morning in the Herald gives Labour-Anderton-Greens-United Future 50.0 per cent and National-New Zealand First-United Future 48.3 per cent.

Labour would have had a 1 per cent advantage over National, so Labour would have had the first crack at talking to New Zealand First and United Future, which have said they will first talk to the major party with the most votes.

There are three cautions with these figures. One is that the polls are historical, with interviewing reaching back to Monday in one case and late last week in the others. The Labour side's long-term trend is down, and National's is up.

The second caution is that the Greens and New Zealand First are hovering in the danger zone, with averages in the latest three polls of 5.5 per cent and 5.6 per cent respectively.

If the Greens fail to clear 5 per cent, Don Brash is probably headed for the ninth floor. If New Zealand First fails 5 per cent and Peters is ousted in Tauranga, Helen Clark's chances of a third term soar.

If both fail, there is every chance of a single-party majority government.

The third caution is the Maori Party. Best guesses are that it will get three or four electorate seats. (We have assumed four.) If neither side can muster a majority, it may be Tariana Turia's crew who decide between Brash and Clark. In that event, the last laugh for Maori might be on Brash, who wants to scrap the Maori seats.

* Each week the Herald has examined an aspect of the poll-of-polls. Each point on the chart represents the average of the four most recently published of the full-sample Herald DigiPoll, Colmar Brunton (TV1), UMR (National Business Review), TNS (TV3) and BRC (Sunday Star-Times). All five are in the mix at all times, but the average at any one time is a different combination of the five polls. ACNielsen's poll for Fairfax is omitted as having limited history.