KEY POINTS:
National has regained enough support to govern alone, according to the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey. It has 51.2 per cent support. Labour trails on 38.8.
A month ago the gap between the parties had narrowed to 4.9 points. The latest poll returns National to the sort of lead it
had two months ago.
Translated to seats, National would have 63, just enough to govern alone in a Parliament that would be swollen to 125 with an overhang of five seats (which occurs when parties win more electorate seats than their party vote percentage entitles them to).
But Prime Minister Helen Clark has kept her substantial lead over National leader John Key as preferred Prime Minister - 50.8 per cent to 37.3.
That represents a four-point jump for Helen Clark, while Mr Key is down 4.9 points.
Polling this month began shortly after a series of policy controversies involving Mr Key - saying the war in Iraq was over, removing the cap on GP fees and suggesting state schools could be owned by the private sector.
He kept a low profile in the weeks after that and the past fortnight has been dominated by fallout over the police raids on suspected weapons-training camps.
Helen Clark was overseas for much of the polling period, including a long trip to Europe for Passchendaele commemorations and to Tonga for the Pacific Islands Forum.
The PM said through a spokeswoman last night that Labour was pleased to be holding support across recent polls at the levels on which it was elected in 1999 (38.74 per cent).
It would be the basis for a strong campaign for re-election next year.
Mr Key said it was a pleasing result "but our unwavering focus will be on the election-day result".
The Green Party fell 1.8 points on last month's poll to 5.4 per cent - still enough to get back into Parliament.
New Zealand First, with just 1.8 per cent, would be out altogether unless leader Winston Peters won an electorate seat.
If he did so, his party - based on today's poll - would return only two MPs. But, crucially, it would remove National's ability to govern alone.
But it could still govern with the NZ First seats or those of Act leader Rodney Hide and United Future leader Peter Dunne - if they are re-elected.