US election: Exclusive poll shows New Zealanders back Kamala Harris over Donald Trump for next President

United States presidential nominee Kamala Harris appears to have found favour with most Kiwis, according to a new poll.

Numbers from Talbot Mills show she’s more than twice as popular as Republican nominee Donald Trump.

The poll comes ahead of Harris’ major speech to the Democratic National Convention (DNC) later today, where she’s expected to accept the party’s nomination for President.

Talbot Mills polled more than 1000 people in New Zealand this month, asking the question: If you were eligible to vote in the US election, who would you vote for?

Some 55% of people said Harris, some 21% of people said Trump.

The poll shows 12% would not vote, while 8% said they were not sure and just 4% said they would prefer another candidate.

Talbot Mills conducts polls on behalf of the Labour Party – although this poll, obtained by Newstalk ZB, was gathered for its corporate clients.

The numbers come as the race in the US continues to heat up.

Former President Barack Obama spoke at the DNC this week, talking up Harris while talking down Trump.

“We do not need four more years of bluster and bumbling and chaos,” he told the convention.

Trump has also been critical of Harris, saying at a recent rally that she was “stupid” and a “Marxist or a communist” and that Obama was “nasty”.

Back home, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has been careful not to pick a side.

“My job as Prime Minister is to work with whoever the American people elect – and I don’t want to pre-suppose that or be hypothetical about that,” he said during a Q&A at the Lowy Institute in Sydney last week.

Regardless of who wins in the US, Luxon said, he would “make it work, either way”.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says he will work with whoever the American people elect. Photo / Mark Mitchell

“It’s hard to read in the heat of a campaign exactly what will happen on the other side of it, and what is rhetoric and what is actually policy and how that plays out.

“But our job is to make sure we have strong, deep relationships with whoever the American people select.”

Seemingly unshackled from the diplomatic duties of leading a country, former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern – who participated in a panel at the DNC this week – left no room for ambiguity when she was asked who she was backing.

“Obviously for the American election, the most important opinion and support that Kamala Harris needs is of course from the American public,” she told 1 News.

“But if you’re asking me as a progressive if I support Kamala Harris – absolutely.”

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Vice-President Kamala Harris in 2022. Photo / Facebook

Digging deeper into the Talbot Mills data, some 50% of men preferred Harris, compared with 31% who backed Trump.

The margin is much wider when it comes to women: 61% supported Harris, just 11% supported Trump.

Talbot Mills also broke down the support for both candidates according to which political party in New Zealand the voters said they supported:

• Green: 66% Harris, 8% Trump
• Labour 65% Harris, 14% Trump
• National: 55% Harris, 26% Trump
• Act: 47% Harris, 32% Trump
• Te Pati Māori: 45% Harris, 18% Trump
• NZ First 35% Harris, 48% Trump

The poll was taken between August 1-10, with a sample size of 1105 and a margin of error of 3.1%.

Jason Walls is Newstalk ZB’s political editor and has covered politics in the Press Gallery since 2017. He’s worked for ZB since 2021, and before that was a member of the Herald’s Press Gallery team.