ANALYSIS
Former prime minister John Key once joked of Australia's revolving door prime ministership, "I don't really mind who turns up, just wear a name badge so I know who it is".
Well, today Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern ventures to Australia to meet the third Australian prime minister of her own leadership (the figure compares favourably with her tally of National leaders, which currently stands at five).
Albanese will not be wearing a name tag - the pair are familiar with each other through their Labor-Labour Party connections. Ardern even dropped Albanese's popular nickname "Albo" in her post-Cabinet press conference - potentially the first (and so far only) head of government to use the nickname in public.
That familiarity, earned through years of connection, possibly means the first part Key's statement is less true than it once was.
It very much matters that it is Albanese, not former prime minister Scott Morrison who will be meeting Ardern in Sydney on Thursday.
Like any leader, Ardern scrupulously stays out of other countries' domestic policies, but there's no denying the current Australian government's positions on climate change, the Pacific, and even finance (Finance Minister Grant Robertson will be joining the trip to meet his opposite number Jim Chalmers, who is interested in wellbeing budgets).
Transtasman trainspotters will be looking to see whether Ardern and Albanese exhibit a warmer relationship than Ardern and Morrison - in the words of Australia's much-loved fictional lawyer Dennis Denuto, "the vibe of the thing" will be all important.
The importance of the change in leader will be underscored by circumstantial similarities to Ardern's last Australian visit in March 2020. Then, Ardern travelled to Sydney and spoke with Morrison at the prime minister's Sydney residence, Kirribilli house.
Outside Kirribilli House, overlooking Sydney harbour Ardern shirtfronted (to borrow the argot of a former Australian prime minister) Morrison, urging him to address New Zealand's opposition to 501 deportees. The policy means a person in Australia on a visa will be deported back to their country of citizenship if they fail or are suspected to fail a good character test, or if they are sentenced to 12 months or more in prison. This occurs regardless of how much time someone has spent in the country.
She urged Morrison "not deport your people and your problems".
The incident was quickly superseded by an even more consequential announcement from Ardern later the same day: the first case of Covid-19 had been detected in New Zealand.
Since then, the Transtasman relationship has played out like an Antipodean Sally Rooney, written with notes of pain and longing, and featuring two protagonists who never quite seem to be in the right place at the right time, and two countries which, despite their obvious connection, can't help but fall apart over the handful of anguishing issues that divide them.
Morrison managed to squeak through the transtasman bubble in May, visiting Queenstown to talk-up both countries' efforts to reopen their Covid-battered economies. But Ardern was unable to return the visit later that year, Delta hit New South Wales, then it hit large parts of the rest of Australia, then it hit New Zealand, and then Morrison was gone.
On Tuesday, Ardern said her agenda with Albanese would include the vexed issue of 501 deportations, the rights of New Zealand citizens in Australia, as well as "climate change, the US-backed Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, and the upcoming Pacific Island Forum".
On these issues, it appears Ardern is hoping a new leader with a new approach will make something of a difference - although she did not rule out repeating the rhetoric she used with Morrison if Albanese is unmoved.
"This is my first engagement with the Prime Minister. It will be a positive one. I will raise these issues, but let's see where we can take them," she said.
"We've been clear with the incoming Prime Minister that these issues remain for us, regardless of who's in office. We want to make progress," Ardern said.
Movement on 501s will be difficult for Albanese domestically. The cruel reality is that Albanese gains very little by being nice to New Zealanders (our politicians understand this - New Zealand has itself deported 400 criminals to Pacific nations between 2013-2018, leading to growing organised crime in the region, according to one report).
This problem is worsened by the fact that one of the men most associated with the deportations policy, former Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, is now leader of Australia's federal opposition.
Dutton once described the 501 policy as "taking the trash out" to "make Australia a safer place".
There's a good chance Dutton would weaponise that record against Albanese, particularly given how emotive border issues can be in Australia. In the past, Labor has tried to neutralise political problems relating to migration by essentially adopting the Liberal-National coalition's policies as its own.
All Ardern can really do is appeal to Albanese's sense of justice and fairness. Robertson could, alternatively, try to leverage his relationship with Chalmers, who has a strong relationship to the New Zealand expat community. His electorate in Brisbane has one of the largest populations of Kiwi expats in Australia.
Indeed, the only indication Albanese has given of movement on 501s has been in the context of improving the relationship with New Zealand.
The Guardian Australia reported before the election that Labor planned to continue 501 deportations but would tweak the ministerial direction to better take into account the length of time people had spent in Australia.
If this panned out, it could mean fewer deportees with little or no connection to New Zealand - a significant win for Ardern, particularly as gang tensions, often connected to 501s, flare up at home.
Another issue on the agenda is improving the rights of New Zealanders living in Australia. New Zealanders' right to live and work in Australia are largely informal and the rights of New Zealand to access parts of the Australian welfare state are far more limited than what Australians receive in New Zealand.
One area where there is likely to be more agreement is on the issue of relations with China and engagement with the Pacific.
New Zealand has been drawn into taking a more hawkish line on China in the last five years, which is far more in line with Australia's stance.
Ardern welcomed the new Australian Government's tougher line on climate change, saying that Pacific countries often raised Australia's unambitious emissions targets with New Zealand.
The pair will also discuss United States President Joe Biden's Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, a fairly unambitious regional trade policy, and the Aukus security deal.
Aukus will be something to watch. New Zealand has been left out of the agreement, which involves the exchange of nuclear submarine technology between the United Kingdom, the US and Australia.
A non-submarine, non-nuclear power, New Zealand has no obvious place in Aukus, but it could carve out an observer status for itself.
This puts Ardern in a challenging position. In an increasingly unsafe and fractious world, Ardern faces pressure to cosy up to friends and strengthen old alliances.
The problem is drawing closer to old friends could damage new relationships, including the relationship with China, which lashed out at Ardern's meeting with Biden, and is no friend of Australia.
Albanese has already come under some pressure to burnish his tough-on-China credentials, with the former Government alleging during the campaign he was China's preferred candidate.
Should Albanese use the event to take a US-style stance against the superpower, Ardern could find herself an unwilling accomplice to yet another Australian domestic dispute.
