The Front Page: Previewing the year in politics - and the election battles ahead

Labour leader Jacinda Ardern and National leader Christopher Luxon. Photos / Mark Mitchell

The nation’s politicians are slowly emerging from their summer hibernation for another year of Wellington drama.

While most politicians have taken it easy, the leaders of the major parties would have used some of their quiet time to develop strategies leading into the election in 2023.

Herald deputy political editor and host of the On the Tiles podcast Thomas Coughlan tells The Front Page we’re likely to see a November election this year.

The latest polling suggests that a National and Act alliance is ahead of Labour and the Greens, but there’s still a long way to go until November.

“I think the biggest issues will be the cost of living and the economy,” says Coughlan.

“There’s a good chance there’ll be a recession at some point this year, with both Treasury and the Reserve Bank forecasting it.”

Neither organisation has forecast a deep or long recession, but this will still be the issue that New Zealanders are most concerned about this year.

In terms of the cost of living, there are signs that inflation is starting to cool around the world but it remains unclear how quickly this will feed into the local context.

The recession combined with inflation will ultimately determine how difficult the upcoming election is for the Labour Party.

“If voting happened right now, you’d have a pretty difficult election campaign for Labour - but, by the time the election is called, the cost of living story might be different.”

The other big issue hanging over this election is mortgage rates, which have steadily risen over the last 18 months.

“People who own houses are more likely than people who don’t own houses to turn out to vote. Just under 60 per cent of people who voted in the last election owned their own home. That section of the electorate is going to go into the election feeling considerably poorer. And that will be a massive slice of the vote for someone to carve out.”

So how could this all play out and what can Labour actually do to stem the migration of voters to the centre right? How important will Act leader David Seymour be to National’s Christopher Luxon? And finally, which will Labour be looking to get across the line in its final six months in power?

Listen to The Front Page podcast to hear Thomas Coughlan break down these issues and give his prediction on what to expect in 2023.