The Front Page revisited: One year in - Can Christopher Luxon beat Jacinda Ardern?

National leader Christopher Luxon in his office at Parliament, Wellington. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Over the next few weeks, The Front Page podcast is revisiting some of the major stories we covered in 2022.

After a tumultuous period of upheaval, leadership coups and scandals, the National Party has enjoyed a period of far greater stability over the last 12 months.

This has been reflected in the poll numbers, which have seen the party steadily rise under the leadership of Christopher Luxon.

But Luxon is far from the finished political product.

He’s made a fair share of gaffes and missteps, and there are still serious questions about National’s policies on major issues.

So as the country heads into an election year, does Luxon have what it takes to turn that spike in popularity into a winning campaign platform?

Newstalk ZB chief political reporter Aaron Dahmen joined us in November and he said that while Luxon has made a good start, he still faces a tough challenge ahead.

“He has steadied the National Party ship,” Dahmen said.

“He has brought everyone under his stewardship. He’s the captain if you will. But it will now be fascinating to see how he transitions from a steady ship into a ship that wins races.”

Dahmen says Luxon will have his work cut for him in beating Ardern in the area where she excels.

“The lack of experience in the Beehive might be a drawcard for some voters, but you need to be careful in the final run-in to next year’s election. That’s Ardern’s bread and butter. She literally won the race in 2017 from a standing start. She wasn’t even in the blocks.”

Ardern was helped across the line by a last-minute alliance with Winston Peters, but few would have expected Labour to have even made it to the position of being able to negotiate at all.

• So will Luxon be able to shift his momentum into a winning campaign?
• What policies will National bring to the table?
• Will National and Act be able to work together?
• What will Act leader David Seymour expect in alliance with National?

Listen to the full episode of The Front Page for a full rundown of National’s ascendancy and the challenge that lies ahead.