The Front Page: One year in – Can Christoper Luxon beat Jacinda Ardern?

Christopher Luxon will have to beat Jacinda Ardern at a game she's very comfortable playing. Photo / RNZ

It’s been nearly one year since Christopher Luxon took over the reins at the National Party.

He inherited an organisation that had been through a tumultuous period of leadership changes and internal controversies.

Since Luxon has taken over, the party has become more stable and steadily risen in the polls.

But his tenure hasn’t been without its mishaps. He has dealt with MP controversies, made his own public gaffes, and there are still serious questions about National’s policies in the lead-up to the general election next year.

Speaking to The Front Page podcast, Newstalk ZB chief political reporter Aaron Dahmen says Luxon has until now leaned into his position as a political outsider but that can only get you so far.

“He has steadied the National Party ship,” says Dahmen.

“He has brought everyone under his stewardship. He’s the captain if you will. But it will now be fascinating to see how he transitions from a steady ship into a ship that wins races.”

The latest polls have shown Luxon with a preferred prime minister rating of 21.5 per cent, compared to the 29.9 per cent of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

Dahmen says Luxon will have his work cut for him in beating Ardern in the area where she excels.

“The lack of experience in the Beehive might be a drawcard for some voters, but you need to be careful in the final run-in to next year’s election. That’s Ardern’s bread and butter. She literally won the race in 2017 from a standing start. She wasn’t even in the blocks.”

Ardern was helped across the line by a last-minute alliance with Winston Peters, but few would have expected Labour to have even made it to the position of being able to negotiate at all.

Dahmen says this race will ultimately be determined in those final seven to eight weeks leading into the election campaign when Luxon will have to go toe to toe with Ardern on the big issues.

“He will need to show himself as prime ministerial. He needs to be able to read a room. He needs to be personable. And crucially too, he needs to be more of a political operator.”

• So will Luxon be able to shift his momentum into a winning campaign?
• What policies will National bring to the table?
• Will National and Act be able to work together?
• What will Act leader David Seymour expect in alliance with National?

Listen to the full episode of The Front Page podcast for a full rundown on the big political battle shaping up in 2023.