The Front Page: Election aftermath shines spotlight on Labour’s loss, coalition talks, tax cuts, gangs and more

Every weekday at 5am, the NZ Herald presents The Front Page, a daily news podcast covering the biggest stories of the day. Here’s a rundown of key stories that made headlines this week. We look into the Labour’s collapse in support, what happens next, whether National’s policy on gangs will work, how many seats National and Act could lose on special votes, and whether National’s tax cuts will make it past the negotiating table.

Tax cut question during negotiations

National, Act and NZ First have all said that they could work together, but there are important nuances between the parties. During coalition discussions there will ultimately be differences of opinion that need to be ironed out for the deal to work for everyone involved.

The National Party campaigned hard on giving New Zealanders tax cuts, but Act’s David Seymour has said he wants to wait for the economy to stabilise before cutting any taxes.

“The tax package is the crux issue at the negotiating table,” NZ Herald senior political writer Derek Cheng tells The Front Page podcast.

“We saw throughout the election campaign that a bunch of National’s revenue predictions were in question. National refused to release the details, and David Seymour said that he can’t say if the tax package is credible because he hasn’t seen the numbers.”

Cheng predicts we could ultimately see Seymour and Luxon reaching a compromise that involves making some deeper spending cuts to pay for the tax cuts.

Depending on where these negotiations land, they could end up pulling Luxon a little further to the right.

What next?

Christopher Luxon will likely have to work with NZ First's Winston Peters. Illustration / Rod Emmerson

With the election over, attention has now turned to the negotiations between National, Act and NZ First.

Given how long things have taken in the past, there are still some concerns these negotiations could drag on.

However, speaking to On the Campaign, NZ Herald deputy political editor Thomas Coughlan said the parties will be working to have things done by November 3, rather than holding out for the Port Waikato byelection.

“Everyone knows the Port Waikato byelection is going to go National’s way. I don’t think there’s any appetite to make the New Zealand public wait that long. I think that will backfire on all three parties if they hang out for that,” Coughlan says.

“So really the big date is November 3, and then after that I’d expect the new Government to head to Government House and to read their oaths and be sworn in.”

Coughlan said the big question for the next few weeks for National is if they want NZ First to be in coalition with them to serve as a buffer, in case of MPs going rogue during the next three years, or if they need NZ First to keep them and Act above the 61-seat majority threshold.

A special problem for National and Act

Special votes are still being counted. Photo / Laura Smith

While there was a resounding uptick in support for parties on the right, the story is not yet complete.

Over the next two weeks, the results of the special votes will come in and this will likely lead to National and Act losing their narrow one-seat majority.

NZ Herald head of data Chris Knox told On the Campaign that with an estimated half a million votes to be counted, they will have a big impact on that majority - and how much National would need NZ First to support them in Government.

“Typically - well, certainly in the last two elections - those special votes have swung pretty strongly left. “So in the last two elections, National, once special votes were counted, their seat allocation has dropped by two compared to election night.

“Basically, every MMP election, they’ve lost at least one seat.”

This invariably means National and Act will have to call on the support of NZ First to form a new Government.

The question now is how those three parties might work together.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins speaks to reporters after a caucus meeting to farewell MPs who have lost their jobs. Photo / George Heard

Labour’s collapse

The 2023 election resulted in a major turnaround in Labour’s fortunes, the party’s vote halving from its landslide in 2020.

Speaking to The Front Page, senior Herald writer Simon Wilson says this poses an existential question for the Labour Party.

“What is its role?” asks Wilson.

“The left is now more strongly occupied by the Green Party and the Māori Party. The right has strong voices. National has aligned itself with either the centre-right or more right-centre. So Labour has to work out a position to stand that is coherently different from all of those.”

Should the party fail to answer this question, this could lead to serious questions about whether it is still relevant in New Zealand’s political landscape.

The gang question

National intends to outlaw gang patches. Photo / NZME

The other big talking point during this election was what the respective parties would do about the country’s growing problem with gangs.

Jared Savage, the author of two books on organised crime and a senior investigations writer at the Herald, tells the Front Page podcast many of the major parties had a consensus on the need to do more about gangs.

“Labour, National, Act and others campaigned for stronger anti-gang laws,” Savage says.

“What’s happened over the last five years – and this does tend to be overstated at times – has been a growth in gang activity, which has spilled out into the public, making people feel unsafe.

“Under Labour, I think things carried on a little bit too long before they realised there was a problem but they reacted last year by bringing in some tougher laws of their own.”

National has announced a four-pronged approach to make life more uncomfortable for gang members, but Savage warns that there’s no silver bullet to this issue.

“There’s no silver bullet … But what this does give police are the tools to make life difficult for gang members if they’re making trouble.”

The other challenge is that gangs are often woven into communities through family ties, making it difficult to distinguish a gang member from someone who just happens to be related to someone in a gang.

These are all tough issues National, Act and NZ First will have to wade through if they are to make progress on their ambitions.