“The last time he lost the race for the leadership, he said he wouldn’t put up his hand again and he has reiterated that. He has been consistent about that position.”
This, therefore, turns the attention to other members of the party with both the aspirations and competence to lead Labour into the next election.
Police Minister Chris Hipkins and Transport Minister Michael Wood have both been posited as possible names to replace Ardern, but taking this role will come with enormous political risk.
“Polling for Labour is not looking flash and there are certainly indications that the polling will probably get worse as the year goes on,” says Coughlan.
The question then is whether any candidates would want to take the risk of becoming leader only to be rolled if Labour does eventually go on to lose the election.
“If the new leader takes them to a decent performance in 2023, they might then have the mandate to stay on and try to do a bit better next time around.”
Recent history does, of course, present the example of Bill English who led a strong election campaign in 2017, leading National to win the largest share of the party vote. He would ultimately only fall short during coalition negotiations, which saw NZ First side with Labour and the Greens. English did initially announce his intention to stay on as leader, but stood down by February 2018 and made way for a new leader in Simon Bridges.
The question now is whether anyone with longer-term political ambitions will be willing to risk becoming Labour leader at a time when momentum is in favour of National.
“The polling isn’t too bad at the moment, with about five points separating the two parties,” says Coughlan.
“But the wind is in National’s sail. You have to look at that as the state of play. National is the party heading in the right direction and Labour is on the decline. But, anything can happen.” The leadership shakeup could also reverberate beyond the Labour Party to its coalition partner, the Greens.
Coughlan says the impact on the Greens will be dependent on who the new Labour leader is.
“If Labour decides to go left that could be bad for the Greens. But if they go to the centre that could potentially be very good for Greens.”
The full picture will only start to take shape once Labour has appointed a new leader and a new strategy for the party is outlined.
In the meantime, Labour will be hoping to avoid the years of chaos that washed over National after the departure of English.
Listen to the full episode of The Front Page podcast to hear Coughlan’s immediate response to the news as it broke.
