The Prime Minister’s Office is clarifying remarks by Christopher Luxon that suggested he held no concern for National MPs who would lose their place in Parliament based on current polling.
In a statement to the Herald, a spokesman said: “The PM was answering a hypothetical question.”
“He is confident all National MPs will be returned at the next election. Our plan to fix the basics and build the future is working and we’re confident of getting a strong result in 2026.”
Earlier on Tuesday, Luxon was questioned by a reporter at a press conference whether he held any concerns for MPs who, based on current polling, would lose their jobs if an election was held today.
It was put to him at the stand-up: “You don’t hold any concerns for those MPs who, on the current polling numbers if an election was held today, would lose their jobs, you’re not worried for them?”
He responded: “No.” He repeated “no” two more times.
On the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll numbers, National was on 30.2%, giving it 39 seats. That is nine fewer than the 48 seats National currently has in Parliament.
Should that result be reflected at an election, it would mean National would lose nine MPs.
It is difficult to predict which MPs would lose their seats. When parties have a lower party vote, they typically also do worse in electorates as well, so some MPs in marginal seats may lose their seats and not hold high enough list positions to return to Parliament.
Speculation about a potential coup against the Prime Minister has been mounting amid poor poll numbers for the National Party, including an Ipsos survey last week which found Labour is now seen as most capable of handling the economy.
As the Herald reported over the weekend, the Prime Minister’s leadership is being discussed by MPs, but there is no formal coup currently on the cards.
Chris Bishop and Erica Stanford have been touted as a potential leadership ticket, but that would mean the party would be led by two MPs viewed as being on the liberal side of National, with no conservative in a top spot.
It was also noted that in the weeks leading up to Christmas, Bishop already has a full agenda, including his Resource Management Act (RMA) reforms.
The Herald asked Bishop on Tuesday afternoon whether he had any plans to roll Luxon as Prime Minister.
“No,” he responded.
Bishop said he hadn’t had any conversations with MPs about Luxon’s leadership and said Luxon would remain as the Prime Minister through to the election.
When asked if Luxon was the best person to lead the National Party, he repeatedly said Luxon was doing a “fantastic” job.
“As you saw with his speech on Sunday, he is doing an outstanding job leading a Government made up of three constituent parties, the first multi-party coalition Cabinet in New Zealand history.”
Bishop said the Government wanted to address “long-term systemic problems that Governments of the past have been unwilling to deal with”.
Asked whether he had concerns for National MPs who would be out of a job on current polling, Bishop said: “We are working hard each and every day to make sure that we put ourselves in the best position to win the next election.”
“Ultimately that’s over to New Zealanders, and the next election is around a year or so away.
“That’s one of the reasons why we’ve got to work as hard as possible on reforms like [to local government] and reforms like resource management reform and reforms that you’ll see over the next year or so, to make sure that we can put ourselves in the best position to win the next election. I firmly believe we can and we will win the election.”
The Herald later returned to the question of whether Luxon was the best person to lead the party. Bishop said he thought he had answered the question and said he “absolutely” believed Luxon was the best person.
“He’s doing a wonderful job as Prime Minister. We’re in difficult economic times, as I think everybody knows, and this is the first time we’ve had a three-way coalition Cabinet in New Zealand history, and that produces its own challenges and trials and tribulations.
“He’s doing an excellent job leading a Government that is firmly focused on long-term structural reform to drive higher living standards, which successive Governments have put into the too-hard basket.”
Bishop said National wanted to get as many MPs in Parliament as possible.
Luxon earlier spoke to media alongside Education Minister Stanford, who was asked whether anyone in her caucus had approached her about taking a leadership role in the National Party.
She said her focus was on “doing my job and raising achievement for kids”.
“All people come to talk to me about is how I can help them in their local electorates build more classrooms. That’s pretty much what people come and talk to me about,” Stanford said.
“I don’t talk to people about leadership. I talk to people about education, or immigration occasionally.”
Luxon said Stanford was doing “an outstanding job in education”.
He said he believed he was doing a good job at communicating the Government’s work.
“We have a great team doing an amazing job. We’ve got the right ministers on the right assignments with the very clear brief to get on and get the change done, and they’re doing an exceptionally good job of that.”
Last week, when asked why voters trust Labour with the economy more than National, the Prime Minister said he didn’t comment on polls.
“There’s so many polls each and every week, I would spend more time commenting on polls than actually trying to fix this country, and so I’m very focused on it.”
Luxon on Monday said he is “absolutely” going to lead National into the next election and he didn’t take murmurs about a potential coup that seriously.
“I’ve been reading this stuff and hearing this stuff ever since I came here. So, but I’m very focused on what I have to do,” Luxon told NewstalkZB.
Jamie Ensor is a senior political reporter in the NZ Herald press gallery team based at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub press gallery office. He was a finalist this year for Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards.