Chris Hipkins has announced that ex-Police Minister Stuart Nash will be stripped of all his cabinet portfolios after a new scandal has emerged. Video / NZ Herald
ANALYSIS:
It is possible Prime Minister Chris Hipkins will announce a mini-reshuffle at his post-Cabinet press conference tomorrow.
Although it has not been confirmed for Monday, Beehive sources said last week that Hipkins would want to announce this week what would happen to Stuart Nash’s portfolios following hissacking last Tuesday.
One option Hipkins was toying with last week was to not fill Nash’s empty seat around the Cabinet table as a signal to the backbench that they don’t simply get promoted into Cabinet as a result of someone else’s incompetence - and a signal to current Cabinet ministers that if they do not collectively up their game, then their workload would increase.
This would mean Cabinet limping on with 19 members until the election. Most decisions are taken by the “kitchen Cabinet” after all, meaning a reduction in membership does not necessarily equate to a reduction of output.
Last week, Hipkins gave Megan Woods the Forestry portfolio on an acting basis, and Oceans and Fisheries to David Parker, also on an acting basis.
These ministers could potentially keep those portfolios, although it is not clear either really want them. Woods is burdened with the heavy Housing, Infrastructure, Energy and Resources and Building and Construction portfolios - not to mention her all-important role as the chairwoman of Labour’s 2023 election campaign.
Parker was the Oceans and Fisheries Minister until Hipkins’ reshuffle in February. It’s not clear that he loved either portfolio.
That leaves the Economic Development portfolio, currently held on an acting basis by Megan Woods. This could perhaps go to Kiri Allan or Damien O’Connor, whose trade responsibilities are easing after a flurry of activity earlier in the term.
It’s also a possibility that a 19-person Cabinet would be the equivalent of giving the Government a red card - and risk overburdening exhausted ministers in the months before the election.
Unlike his predecessor, who inherited a diversity-constrained front bench and Cabinet, Hipkins has some latitude to move with appointments without unbalancing the Cabinet’s diversity.
If someone is elevated, Hipkins might choose to promote Duncan Webb or Deborah Russell, both ministers outside of Cabinet.
Meka Whaitiri is also a minister out of Cabinet. She has been given Nash’s cyclone recovery co-ordination responsibilities, but is unlikely to be promoted into Cabinet, given the political risk of replacing one sacked minister with a minister sacked in Labour’s first term.
Any move by a minister outside of Cabinet into Cabinet itself would open up another ministerial spot.
Napier MP Stuart Nash has been sacked from Cabinet - his portfolios must be reassigned. Photo / Mark Mitchell
The most likely candidate would be Rachel Brooking, chairwoman of the Finance and Expenditure Committee, who narrowly missed out on an executive appointment in February.
As Labour’s resident backbench RMA expert, she was needed on the Environment Committee, which was hearing RMA submissions. That work has now wrapped up, leaving Brooking free for promotion.
This week, attention will focus on another politician looking for a new job: former prime minister Jacinda Ardern, who will return to the debating chamber for the first time since December to deliver her valedictory speech on Wednesday.
The galleries are expected to be packed with family and supporters, and a Parliament party after the speech is planned.
Sources have pointed in the direction of the Christchurch Call for Ardern’s next job - although it is not clear when this will be announced. It is not clear whether this would be a fulltime job or an advocacy position.
Hipkins himself hinted at this last month when he said there was “potential” for Ardern’s ongoing involvement with the Christchurch Call.
“There’s potential for Jacinda Ardern to continue to be involved in that work, and in due course, we’ll explore what that might look like,” Hipkins said.
As for Nash himself, he has not confirmed whether he will contest his seat at the 2023 election or whether he will resign his candidacy and force his local electorate to select another candidate.
As of Sunday night, Nash had not confirmed to the Herald whether or not he would show up to Labour’s weekly caucus meeting on Tuesday morning.
He returned to Napier last week - his return to Parliament this week seems unlikely.
