Predictions: The NZ Herald politics team predicts the next year in politics

We predict one of these people will be prime minister at the end of the year. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The election outcome: We refuse to pick an overall election outcome. It would lead to a temptation to try to make it become a self-fulfilling prophesy for the sake of being right (we do not like being wrong). It would also deprive us of a happy year of speculation. And it would be a wild guess at best, given it is still too early to pick.

So we will hedge our bets.

We are, however, happy to make some predictions on what will happen as a result of each potential outcome – and what parties might do to try to win it.

Grant’s big package: In March 2020, Finance Minister Grant Robertson delivered us his “big package” - the subsidies and economic support for the Covid-19 lockdown period, which Jacinda Ardern said would be the most significant package she delivered in her time as PM.

This time round Labour will promise another big package for a different virus: the cost of living.

Robertson has more headroom to move than many anticipated. He puts it down to sound economic management – but one of the reasons for it is that his tax haul is a lot more than anticipated. In short, Robertson’s books look good because of the levy on the taxpayer’s books.

Robertson will work out that the taxpayers will work that out.

Robertson is also the most cut-throat in Labour when it comes to making the big decisions to get Labour back up in the polls. Making Working for Families more generous is one option, but comes with less political pay-off (and much of the political pay-off has already been milked.) Working for Families changes will come (the Government is currently reviewing the settings) but the exact size of these changes is difficult to predict.

Tax cuts are the bluntest tool – and also the most effective.

So we predict Robertson will put tax cuts on Labour’s election manifesto, targeting the bottom thresholds to ensure those on low incomes get the same share of them as those on high incomes.

All tax cuts are expensive. It may or may not even come in the Budget, depending on how desperate Labour is (and how ruthless Robertson is in his summer stocktake of what can be trimmed from Labour’s current programme).

Will Grant Robertson offer tax cuts in 2023? Quite possibly. Photo / Mark Mitchell

But concern about the inflationary impact of tax cuts is more likely to see it instead put on Labour’s campaign manifesto - and possibly triggering later in the next term of Parliament than the first post-election tax year of 2024.

Robertson’s won’t be as generous as National’s final tax cut package – Robertson will still want to be able to accuse National of being irresponsible, inflationary and unable to afford its tax cuts without cutting core public services.

But it will be more generous than the ‘chewing gum’ adjustments offered by Sir Michael Cullen in the last Labour government.

The reason for that is the chewing gum tax cuts highlighted the political reality that if you can’t offer meaningful tax cuts, you’re best not to offer anything at all.

On the subject of the Government’s programme: we predict the TVNZ-RNZ merger is axed in early 2023. Social Unemployment Insurance survives the purge, but perhaps with reduced scope or an extended timeframe.

Labour: In early 2023 at least four more Labour MPs will decide they are not standing again in 2023, including at least two senior ministers. The ministers will reveal their intentions to coincide with Ardern’s reshuffle in late January.

Two others will decide to go on the list instead of stand in their electorate, making it easier to bow out if Labour loses the election.

Neither of those two will be Ardern or Robertson – but if Labour does lose, we predict byelections in Mt Albert and Wellington Central (although maybe not until early 2024).

Ardern will attend King Charles’ coronation in May and visit Australia but a trip to China will be scuttled by Covid-19 again. Otherwise, foreign travel will be light.Rachel Brooking will win selection in Dunedin, and Dan Rosewarne will win selection in Christchurch East.

National:

National leader Christopher Luxon will not rule out a potential coalition with NZ First ahead of the election.

Barbara Kuriger will be asked to consider her future in Parliament following her demotion this year over her correspondence with the Ministry for Primary Industries over a matter concerning her son. She’s likely to announce her retirement from politics.

National will run its first candidates in the Māori seats since 2002. None will win a seat, and expect a difficult conversation over whether they should be given priority on the list.

Nicola Willis will win Ohariu and Chris Bishop will win back Hutt South.

NZ First: NZ First will squeak back in and end up on the cross benches.

NZ First leader Winston Peters will decide he doesn’t want to return to Parliament after all and either not be on the party’s list at all or resign soon after the election if they get back in. This prediction was made when the author had Covid so may be the result of Covid brain. It does not seem likely now that sanity has returned. However, it is as likely as Peters’ own prediction that Ardern would call a snap election called. So we have left it here.

Act leader David Seymour won't retire next election, but some of his MPs will. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Te Pāti Māori: Debbie Ngarewa-Packer will win back Te Tai Hauauru for Te Pāti Maori and Rawiri Waititi will hold the Waiariki seat. Te Pāti Maori will win back one other seat, possibly Tamaki Makaurau. If National and Act win the election, Christopher Luxon will try to broker an agreement with Te Pāti Māori anyway, to give him more than one way to reach a majority. Te Pāti Māori will not do it, but will end up on the cross benches with narrow agreements for gains in specific areas, such as Whanau Ora.

The Greens: James Shaw will still be the co-leader of the Green Party come the election, but will have to go through another flurry of fuss to hold it, although not as much as in 2022.

Expect this to arise early in the year, as the Green Party gathers to rank their party list. Shaw will ultimately remain where he is, however.

The Greens campaign on an ambitious tax package, which becomes a massive political liability for coalition partner, Labour.

Act: At least one Act MP will decide not to stand again. If National and Act win the election, David Seymour will push hard to be made Minister of Finance, but ultimately will not get it.

Momentum: You will not hear much from this party (as yet unregistered) in 2023. We doubt it will even register as a political party in 2023, and if it does, it will not gain a seat. You may, however, hear extensively from its leader, Gaurav Sharma, via his Facebook account.

The Nostradamus ‘probably won’t happen’ prophesy: The past few years have taught us that the things that are unlikely to happen are sometimes more likely to happen, such as weird viruses that lock people into their homes.

So we pick two of French seer Nostradamus’ predictions for 2023: the first is a meteor hitting somewhere in New Zealand.

The second, given the more contemporaneous predictions of economic doom and gloom, is this verse: “So high will the bushel of wheat rise that man will be eating his fellow man.” We hope it isn’t literal, but you never know these days so plant some wheat in case.

We predict that you might forget this man by the end of 2023, but he won't have forgotten his beef with the Labour Party. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The doomiest and gloomiest: This is a prediction we hope does not come true, but the next election will be uglier than previous ones with some of the threats to politicians made during the parliamentary protests resurfacing during the campaign.

Expect to see Labour and National clash over how much traditional campaigning should change in response to increased security threats.

The happy note: We like to end on a happy note. So our final prediction for 2023 is for a wedding: Ardern and her fiance Clarke Gayford will finally get married. If they can’t set a date, we’ll do it for them: we predict it will be in mid-December.

Neve will be a flower girl. The sun will shine, tears will be shed and only two guests will get boozed and make total gooses of themselves.

We also predict Ardern will see this and instead opt for a January 2024 wedding to deny us a mark.