Nick Mills interviews current Wellington mayor and candidate Andy Foster. Video / Mark Mitchell
Opinion:
At the beginning of Wellington's mayoral campaign Andy Foster said it would be a two-horse race and as it turns out he was right - it's just that he's not in it.
A Kantar Public poll commissioned by current affairs programme Q+A shows Foster is trailing behind his rivals.
Foster is on 20 per cent, former Green Party chief of staff Tory Whanau is on 26 per cent, and Labour Rongotai MP Paul Eagle is on 28 per cent.
It's worth pointing out 47 per cent of the 500 eligible voters surveyed said they either didn't know who they will vote for, refused to express their preference, or said they did not plan to vote.
But if the poll is anything to go by, it seems Wellington will cycle through yet another one-term mayor.
Foster's strategy on the campaign trail has been to list all the things his council has achieved in the last three years - like a massive overhaul of the district plan, a sludge treatment option, and agreeing to establish a community housing provider.
One of his strengths is being all over the detail of council matters and that has come across well in debates.
But did he really think he could list off the council's achievements and all would be forgiven? If he did, the poll is a rude awakening for Foster.
People have not forgotten the council meetings which have stretched into the night marred with infighting.
Foster is the mayor who attended a $30,000 leadership course at a luxury five-star Queenstown resort, paid for by ratepayers, and then refused to answer subsequent questions as to what he learned there.
NZ Herald reporter and moderator Georgina Campbell with candidates Andy Foster, Tory Whanau and Paul Eagle before a mayoral debate earlier this month. Photo / Mark Mitchell
He emailed 11 changes to his own budget in bullet point form the night before deliberations, despite having already publicly announced what was in his budget.
One of those changes was a proposal to privatise part of the beloved central library, which went down like a cup of cold sick.
Things got so bad under Foster's watch he commissioned an independent review of his own council because in his words, the public's belief in their ability as an elected group to govern had been shaken and eroded.
The review's findings included Foster being ineffective in one of the mayor's key roles, which is to be a champion for the city.
So it is not surprising that Foster is losing, but what is surprising is just how down to the wire it is between Eagle and Whanau.
Name recognition is everything in local government and considering Eagle is a former deputy mayor and currently a local MP, you would expect him to have a more convincing lead.
Whanau was essentially an unknown candidate when she announced, but she got in early and has been building her profile.
The race is so tight at this point the Kantar Public poll said it was "essentially a toss-up" between Eagle and Whanau.
The question for voters now is whether they should re-group.
The poll showed voters more likely to vote for Foster were National Party supporters and men aged 55 or above.
Eagle, who is centre left, might all of a sudden become more appealing to them if the alternative is Whanau, who is left.
Then there is mayoral candidate Ray Chung who is pitching himself as pro-business. He showed up in the polling at 13 per cent.
The overall poll result could encourage those voters to switch to Foster, if Eagle was too left for them, which would put the incumbent back in the game.
Then there are the 47 per cent who are undecided or don't plan to vote.
As Q+A host Jack Tame pointed out when revealing the poll, that figure might seem big but don't forget voter turnout in local body elections is historically much lower than national elections.
So if you thought local body politics was boring, think again, because it's all on in Wellington.
