NZ Herald head of data Chris Knox has broken down the data and told On the Campaign, the Herald’s daily election podcast, that we’ve seen a steady increase in people choosing to cast their vote early.
“Prior to 2011, you required a reason to advance vote. So in 2008, 11 per cent of people advance voted - so I guess that was people who knew they would be travelling on election day, or were living outside of their electorate.
“But then from 2011 onwards, ordinary advanced voting became a thing. So it was 14 per cent in 2011 and doubled to 29 per cent in 2014, and then slightly less than doubled to [48 per cent] in 2017, and then two-thirds of votes in 2020.”
That now puts more onus on the leaders to make their case early, rather than saving that final push until just before election day.
And while overseas voters may not seem like they have the power to sway the election, the Green Party did pick up an extra MP in 2017 after overseas voters were counted.
Knox said that those living overseas are likely to have different priorities when it comes to their home country than those living here, but they do make up a decent chunk of the electorate.
“This year, there’s about 72,000 overseas New Zealanders who have registered to vote so far.
“So last election, overseas special votes were about 61,000, so [that’s] an electorate size.”
Listen to the full episode of On the Campaign for the full rundown of today’s big election stories.
On the Tiles is available on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. New episodes are available evenings every weekday.
