New Taxpayers’ Union - Curia poll delivers more bad news to Labour’s Chris Hipkins and National’s Chris Luxon, but a boost for Te Pāti Māori

A new Taxpayers’ Union - Curia poll has delivered another drop for Labour and also for National – but good news for Te Pāti Māori, which climbed to the 5 per cent mark.

The poll released today has Te Pāti Māori at 5 per cent (up 1.5 points) for the first time in the poll’s history. It follows a similarly strong result of 4 per cent for the party in the Talbot Mills poll.

However, the news was not good for either Labour or National: National was still ahead of Labour but had dropped to 33 per cent - down three points since the last poll in June.

Labour had dropped two to 31 per cent and Prime Minister Chris Hipkins took a big hit as preferred Prime Minister, dropping from 29 per cent to 23 per cent.

He is now only just ahead of National leader Christopher Luxon on 20 per cent, but Luxon had also dropped by three points.

The Act Party was holding firm at 13 per cent and the Green Party had dropped one to 9 per cent. NZ First was on 3.3 per cent - up 1.7.

If the poll result were delivered on election night and National stuck to its pledge not to govern with Te Pāti Māori, it would result in a hung Parliament: the Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori grouping would have 60 seats, and National and Act would have 60.

The poll of 1000 eligible voters was taken from July 2-10 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 per cent.

The poll also showed a record low for those who believed the country was heading in the wrong direction: 22.1 per cent (-2.7 points on last month) of New Zealanders thought the country was heading in the right direction, while 64.5 per cent (+7.1 points) thought it was heading in the wrong direction. The polling commentary said that was a new record low for the net country direction of -42.4 per cent (-9.8 points).

It is the second poll this week to show a drop for Labour after a Talbot Mills poll for its corporate clients showed it had dropped five points to 31 per cent.

It is now perilously close to the 30 per cent mark in two polls following a string of disruptions and issues with ministers, as well as ongoing strain on the economy and high inflation hitting people’s household budgets.

However, National has failed to make much traction from Labour’s drop in either of the two polls.

Overnight in Europe, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said the results were disappointing.

”I know the last few months have been messy for the Government.

“It is an indication that New Zealanders don’t feel like we’ve been focused on the issues that they want us to be focused on, and I think that’s a message that the whole of the Labour Party will hear.

“Any poll result like that is disappointing, but it is real, and I take it seriously.”

Te Pāti Māori leaders Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Rawiri Waititi. Photo / Whakaata Māori

Te Pāti Māori have always had to rely on winning electorate seats to get into Parliament because it has not tipped over the 5 per cent threshold.

However, its polling started going up earlier this year around the same time Meka Whaitiri jumped ship from Labour to Te Pāti Māori.

The official election period begins on Friday, and Te Pāti Māori will have its campaign launch in Auckland on Thursday night, coinciding with Mātariki.