New poll: National up slightly, still below 30%, NZ First sees surge in Taxpayers’ Union-Curia results

The National Party has risen slightly in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, but it remains under 30% and the results would see a sizeable number of MPs lose their jobs if the result was replicated at the election.

On these results, Labour is down 1 point to 33.4%, National is up 1.4 to 29.8%, NZ First has increased 3.9 points to 13.6%, Act is up 1.5 to 9%, the Green Party is down 2.7 to 7.8% and Te Pāti Māori is down 0.6 to 2.6%.

If that was converted to seats in the House, the centre-right bloc would be on 65 seats, enough to govern, while the centre-left would be on 55 seats.

The poll was taken between April 1 and April 2. This came amid renewed speculation over Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s leadership following a mysterious Sunday night meeting with Auckland ministers.

As the Herald reported last week, one allegation being put about is that some Luxon loyalists confronted the National leader with news he was losing support in caucus and needed to act.

On Thursday, Luxon reshuffled his National Cabinet. This was partly necessitated by the upcoming retirements of Judith Collins and Shane Reti, and saw the promotions of Chris Penk and Penny Simmonds. Chris Bishop was stripped of his Leader of the House and campaign chair roles, but given Attorney-General.

Broken down by party, Labour would be on 42 seats, National would be on 37 seats, NZ First on 17, Act on 11, the Greens on 10 and Te Pāti Māori on 3.

“This calculation assumes there are no overhang seats for National and Te Pāti Māori,” the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll commentary says.

National’s 37 seats on these results compare to the 48 it currently holds.

One of the biggest winners on this poll is NZ First which would more than double its seats. It won eight at the 2023 election.

The Green Party would see its seat count dip. It currently holds 15 seats.

In terms of preferred Prime Minister, National’s Luxon is down 0.5 to 20.5%, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins is down 1 point to 21.7%.

NZ First leader Winston Peters is up 1.7 points to 12.1%, Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick is up 2.8 points to 7.4%, while Act’s David Seymour is down 0.6 points to 4.6%.

In March, Luxon had to dampen down speculation over his future as National leader after a poll result showed his party on 28.4%.

That itself came after the Prime Minister was criticised for his performance at a press conference, during which he said “any action” to stop the Iranian regime would be a “good thing”. He later said he misspoke.

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Wednesday 1 April and Thursday 2 April 2026,has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 5.3% were undecided on the party vote question.