National has taken the lead in the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll, but only just. The party has also taken the lead in a demographic in which it has previously struggled: women.
National has climbed 2.5 points to 37.8 per cent, just 1 point ahead of Labour, which is on 36.8 per cent, up 0.6 points.
The Greens came in next on 9.4 per cent, down 3 points. Act also fell, down 2.8 points to 8.4 per cent.
Te Pāti Māori surged 3.5 points to 3.6 per cent.
On those numbers the Labour-Green bloc would have 58 seats, 46 for Labour and 12 for the Greens.
That would put them ahead of National and Act, who would have 57 seats, 47 for National and 10 for Act.
This would make Te Pāti Māori kingmaker. They would have 5 seats, giving them the balance of power.
National leader Christopher Luxon's personal popularity metrics continue to rise, although in one metric he is still well behind Labour leader Jacinda Ardern.
He polled 28.6 per cent as preferred prime minister, up 2 points. Ardern polled 36.3 per cent, down 1.5 points.
Luxon had a higher net favourability than Ardern, with a net rating of 12 points to Ardern's 9. That represents a significant fall in favourability for Ardern who polled 33 in October last year.
Luxon's net favourability continues to be buoyed by a larger number of people not having an opinion of him. Ardern has a larger number of people approving of her, as well as a larger number of people disapproving of her, giving her a lower net rating.
National has now taken the lead among women voters - it had lagged with women voters for some months.
National polled 38.4 per cent among women, compared with 34.1 per cent for Labour.
Among men, National polled 37.2 per cent compared with 39.9 per cent for Labour.
The poll ran from April 7 to April 13, 2022, taking in the aftermath of the Government's April 1 benefit changes, and polled a sample of 1000 eligible New Zealand voters. The maximum sampling error (for a result of 50 per cent) is +/- 3.1 per cent, at the 95 per cent confidence level.
This is the second poll to show National in front of Labour, with Te Pāti Māori as kingmaker.
A 1 News-Kantar Poll from March gave a similar result.