National Party leader Christopher Luxon admits 45 per cent election result target is a ‘stretch goal’

National has set itself a target of a 45 per cent election result – an ask even leader Christopher Luxon admits is a “very stretch goal.”

The party has been stuck in the doldrums of the mid-30s in the polls for most of the past year – the last time it was in the mid-40s was back before Covid-19 when Simon Bridges was the leader.

The 45 per cent goal was not supposed to be made public but it appeared as a line on a slide which was accidentally left up for the opening of the National Party conference in Wellington this weekend.

Asked about it afterwards, Luxon said it was an internal target set by the campaign team which also set specific targets for each electorate and region.

It is the same figure as the 45 per cent National got in 2008 under Sir John Key, ending Labour’s three-term government. However, Labour was polling a lot lower in 2008 whereas National and Labour have been in a deadlock in the polls since the start of this year, with the left and right blocs in close contention.

While Luxon is a fan of setting key performance indicators for his MPs, he would not stake his own job on reaching the goal, or on improving his ratings as preferred prime minister, which have remained stubbornly low.

“My preferred prime minister rating is on October 14 when I get appointed to the job. I don’t need a number. We are very focused on making sure we deliver to New Zealanders and all that matters is October 14,” he said.

“The only target I have is winning government. It’s that simple. All that matters is winning government on October 14.”

Luxon had arrived at the conference wearing a red Crusaders’ jersey, saying he liked the team “because they win. They win nice or they win ugly but they win.”

Asked if that meant he was happy for National to “win ugly”, he said, “I just want to win”.

In his speech to party members, he reminded them how far the party had come since the dire days of 2020, and told them more hard work would be needed.

“In the coming weeks, let’s go even harder. Because power doesn’t concede easily.”

The 45 per cent goal could put National on a collision course with Act, if it tries to reclaim some of the support it has lost to its likely governing partner.

Luxon would not say if that was one of its strategies, adding its goal was to secure every party vote it possibly could. “I am ruthlessly focused on maximising the National Party vote.”

However, National’s recent move to push back levies on agricultural emissions until 2030, and its vocal opposition to the use of ethnicity criteria in prioritising some health services have raised suspicion that National is trying to stem the loss of votes to Act on rural and race issues.

Luxon did not talk about Act in his speech to members – nor was there much mention of Labour or Prime Minister Chris Hipkins.

While National’s deputy leader Nicola Willis and Luxon spoke at length about the state of the economy and the former referred to the tax policies of “some parties”, there was no direct attack on Labour or Hipkins.

That was clearly a deliberate strategy after National accused its main rival of “petty point scoring” for its attacks at the Labour conference, instead of putting up its own proposals for voters.

In her speech, Willis warned of the “mortgage bomb” that was looming as a result of ongoing high inflation – and the fast increases in interest rates.

“In the months ahead, hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders will have to move off a home loan with a 2 or 3 per cent interest rate to a loan with 6 or 7 per cent interest. Many homeowners will be left scrambling for the hundreds of extra dollars they will need to make their mortgage payments each fortnight.

“When that mortgage bomb goes off, the whole economy will shudder.”

Luxon will deliver his speech on Sunday and is expected to focus on law and order. He indicated that could be around the targets that National will impose on bringing down crime, saying it was due to release details of its goals in a range of areas in the near future.

Claire Trevett is the NZ Herald’s political editor, based at Parliament in Wellington. She started at the NZ Herald in 2003 and joined the Press Gallery team in 2007. She is a life member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery.