Latest poll: Chris Hipkins’ popularity rises, Christopher Luxon tumbles, Greens the big winner

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Chris Hipkins is leading the way as preferred Prime Minister while support for National leader Chris Luxon has tumbled in the latest political poll.

Hipkins rose four points to 27 per cent as the preferred PM in tonight’s One News Kantar poll, while Luxon dropped five to 17 per cent - his lowest since taking on the role at the end of 2021.

Based on the results Labour could form a government with the support of the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.

But it remains tight between the two main parties with both taking a fall, with Labour dropping two points to 36 per cent while National fell three points to 34 per cent.

The Green Party meanwhile was the big winner rising four points and reversing a recent declining trend, while Te Pāti Māori also got a bump rising two points to three per cent.

The Greens now sit on 11 per cent, while Act was up one to also sit on 11 per cent.

The results would give Labour and the Greens 60 seats - and National and Act 57.

This meant neither of the two traditional pairings could form a Government, which requires a majority of the 120 seats.

On the numbers, only Labour and the Greens could then form a Government with the support of Te Pāti Māori.

Of the parties outside of Parliament NZ First remained the most popular rising one point to three per cent - still below the five per cent threshold.

In the preferred PM stakes, Act Party Leader David Seymour received six per cent and NZ First leader Winston Peters three per cent.

On the poll results, Hipkins told 1News it showed Labour could not only refocus priorities but also win this year’s election.

Hipkins said he would be happy to continue working with the Greens and that Labour had a “relatively constructive” working relationship with Te Pāti Māori.

Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson told 1News their bump in support was due to the public focusing attention on climate change following this year’s devastating cyclones.

Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi told 1News they would be “looking forward” to any discussions with Labour and the Greens to come about working together.

Luxon meanwhile told 1News his drop and support and rise for Hipkins was “understandable” given recent attention and role the Government played in managing the natural disasters.

But the election was still a “long way to go”, he said.

Luxon’s preferred PM ratings were better than former leaders Judith Collins and Simon Bridges but were well below those of John Key prior to him becoming Prime Minister in 2008.

The last 1News Kantar Public poll at the end of January captured Hipkins’ first few weeks in the top job after Jacinda Ardern stood down.

In that poll Labour had a five-point bump rising to 38 per cent and overtaking National on 37 per cent.

Hipkins then went straight from zero to 23 per cent as preferred PM, while Luxon had dropped slightly to 22 per cent.

In that January poll, Act was on 10 per cent (down 1), the Green Party on 7 per cent (down 2) and NZ First had dropped back to 2 per cent (down 2). Te Pāti Māori was on 1 per cent.

Today’s poll follows one published on Friday by the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia, which saw Labour take the lead for the first time since March 2022, hitting 35.5 per cent - a rise of 1.1 points on last month’s poll.

In that poll National was on 34.8 per cent. Thanks to Act’s support, National would still be in Government on that poll.

The minor parties were being squeezed however: Act was on 9.3 per cent while the Greens hovered close to the 5 per cent threshold, falling 2.1 points to 5.7 per cent.

Of the smaller parties, NZ First polled 4.2 per cent, New Conservatives 2.5 per cent, Top polled 1.7 per cent, and the Māori Party polled 1.4 per cent.

The Government earlier today revealed it would spend $2 billion on a welfare package that Hipkins “bread and butter support” to take the “bite” out of the rising cost of living. Hipkins also scrapped a number of policies to pay for the move, including narrowing the cuts to speed limits.

The package will see the incomes of about 1.4 million New Zealanders stay in line with inflation, supporting pensioners, students, children and parents, and those on main benefits.

It includes an extra $311m to be spent over the next four years that allows main benefits to be increased in line with inflation - 7.22 per cent - rather than the average wage rise as previously planned, which was costed at about $1.7 billion.

This increase in spending meant a family with children on a benefit would receive an extra $40.86 a week and a sole parent an extra $31.83 a week.

Increases to superannuation will mean couples receive an increase of more than $100 a fortnight, and individuals an extra nearly $70.

In the last term of Government, Labour indexed main benefits to the increases in the average wage as this had traditionally risen faster than inflation.

Hipkins said that the situation had now reversed, with inflation higher than average wage rise of 6.24 per cent.

“Cabinet has this year agreed to provide additional support to this group by increasing main benefits by 7.22 per cent in line with inflation,” Hipkins said.