KEY POINTS:
The first in an election series in which a panel of readers answers questions on the big issues.The panel of 120 eligible voters has been selected by the research company Nielsen to reflect the age, gender and regional spread of the voting-age population.
QUESTIONS
* Do you
think the NZ economy will suffer as a result of financial problems in the US?
* What effects on the economy do you expect?
* Has the recession affected you personally?
Voters overwhelmingly expect the US financial crisis to have an impact on the New Zealand economy, though many have yet to feel the effects of the recession this year.
A demographically selected sample of voters has answered a series of questions put to them by the Herald for an in-depth reading of the public mood that will be a regular feature of the paper's election campaign coverage.
Of the 94 panellists who responded to questions about the US crisis, 81 per cent expected New Zealand to suffer in some way.
The greatest number expect the pain to be felt in reduced exports to the US, as well as higher prices of imports, particularly petrol.
Interest rate rises and reduced investment and credit for business were also predicted by many, especially older males. Not so many voters in all categories expected jobs to be lost.
Among the few optimists was a woman in the 30-44 age bracket whose reasons was that the Government had not borrowed for infrastructure (as National proposes to do). Another, a middle-aged man said: "We are not overly exposed ... to the [US] financial sector, ie the bond or sub-prime markets."
But most echoed the sentiments of the woman among the over 60s, who predicted a slowdown in "not only home mortgages but development loans, hire purchase, credit card spending. Interest rates will rocket," she said, "leaving borrowers unable to service them. Also commodities across the board will rise in cost, affecting all."
A younger woman said, "Our recession will get worse and last for at least 15 months."
The recession, though, has yet to be felt by half of those surveyed. Exactly 50 per cent said it had not affected them personally. A slightly larger number said the recession had been felt in their households.
For one woman in the 30-44 bracket the effect was favourable. "It has brought house prices down, which means it will soon be possible for us to purchase our first home."
But for most of those affected it was adverse. One woman had been made redundant.
Another said, "I am trying to cut unnecessary spending. I was planning to replace my windows and am now going to put aside the money for a rainy day."
And another: "We have had to cancel our medical insurance to cope with increased mortgage payments.
"We find we live week to week and struggle to find the money for petrol and unexpected costs like car repairs, vet or doctor's fees."
Two said they had lost investments in finance companies.
A middle-aged man said he had had to work in Australia for six months to service his home loan.
A woman in the same age bracket said: "Business has slowed. We are putting a new product on hold for the time being because of the recession."
Tax cuts that took effect yesterday have not yet appeared in take-home pay. Their benefit will be assessed in a later survey in this series.
