KEY POINTS:
Life without Helen Clark? Labour's abysmal showing in Saturday's Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll will have the party's MPs inevitably thinking the unthinkable - but only briefly.
That in itself is still something of a watershed. It has been nearly 12 years since Clark's leadership of Labour last came under
question. But it is still a long way off being under serious question. And merely thinking the unthinkable is a long way short of doing the unthinkable.
No one is yet putting the words "Clark" and "leadership challenge" in the same sentence despite a horrid week for the governing party followed by a horrible poll. Combined with the accompanying "Poll-axed" headline, it all added up to a massive kick in the guts for Labour morale.
Labour's big fear is that should the leadership genie get well and truly out of the bottle, it will be impossible to stuff it back in.
It would be a disaster for Labour if Clark's leadership, which has been seen as an electoral strength, suddenly became a weakness through continued speculation on possible coups and challenges.
There was obvious Beehive nervousness yesterday about the possibility of that happening, with Clark cutting short questions on the subject at her weekly post-Cabinet press conference.
The short-term worry for Labour is that the latest polls seemingly indicate that Labour's strategy of rolling out bold, fresh policy initiatives to demonstrate the Government is not tired and worn out does not seem to be working - at least not yet.
Clark has made herself the figurehead of that strategy. She has nailed her colours to the mast.
She believes she can beat John Key on the crucial question of leadership because she has the experience and substance he lacks.
Currently, though, Key is winning on leadership because voters are focusing on other attributes which Key does possess and which they like. He is competent, personable, conservative yet moderate in his conservatism, and he is something fresh and without political baggage.
If Clark's strategy does not start working, then her leadership will come under more serious scrutiny.
However, Labour is determined not to panic - or at least not to be seen to be panicking. A leadership coup would be the ultimate act of panic. More so because there is no guarantee anyone else in the Labour caucus - namely Phil Goff - would prove any more effective than Clark in seeing off Key. There is always the possibility any replacement could make matters worse.
Goff has made no impact on the polls despite being in Parliament for 24 of the past 27 years. The panic button will have to be well and truly pushed before the Labour caucus would opt for him as its potential saviour.
Better from his point of view to take over the leadership after the election than before - presuming he can muster the numbers. Goff knows the score. He was a Cabinet minister before the 1990 election when Mike Moore ousted Sir Geoffrey Palmer just eight weeks before the nation voted.
That looked like desperation. It made no real difference to the result. Labour still got a hammering.
