KEY POINTS:
It says a lot about Winston Peters that he is willing to stand again in Tauranga at next year's election after being tossed out of the seat in 2005.
But it also speaks volumes of the predicament that NZ First finds itself in.
Few politicians would risk inviting
rejection for a second time in a seat which had been almost his personal fiefdom for nigh on two decades. But few politicians are like Peters.
His party's rules require candidates to stand in an electorate with being on the party's list. But Peters could have have stood elsewhere than Tauranga, with little expectation of him winning and consequently less pressure on him to do so.
That would have made it easier for him to campaign across the country. But that was not really an option. NZ First's poll rating has been mired around 2 to 3 per cent all year in the Herald-DigiPoll, making it more pressing to win a constituency seat and thus negate having to beat the 5 per cent threshold to get back into Parliament via the party vote.
Aside from Tauranga, the only other feasible possibility was the new seat of Botany in south Auckland, part of which covered the Hunua seat which Peters held in the late 1970s.
It would have been a long shot. In contrast, National's majority in Tauranga is only slightly more than 700 votes. Moreover, NZ First believes Peters' must have a presence in the Bay of Plenty to prop up the party's traditional above-average party vote in the region.
Peters has yet to announce officially he is standing in Tauranga. Neither is he commenting. But his intentions have been made public because NZ First wants to end the speculation about where he will stand while giving early notice to Tauranga voters.
Peters is also trying to smoke out Bob Clarkson in the hope that the incumbent National MP will put off thoughts of retirement and opt to fight Peters again.
Peters does not like losing. There is an element of unfinished business. He thinks Clarkson, who has not set Parliament alight, is now highly beatable.
Peters will still struggle to win the seat, however. No longer the incumbent, he is bound to have lost a chunk of those voters who were loyal to him as the local MP, but not to his party.
In that regard, Peters has increasingly relied on collapsing the local Labour vote. There is not much left for him to collapse.
The electoral wind is still blowing as strong, if not stronger behind National since John Key took over from Don Brash. A good portion of NZ First's party vote has deserted to National. Clarkson should benefit.
Although NZ First is technically not part of the Government, Peters is inevitably associated with Labour and therefore vulnerable to any swing against the Government.
However, Peters has one potential advantage Clarkson lacks. National may need NZ First on board to stop Labour and the Greens forming the next Government. Say NZ First is polling at 4 per cent during the election campaign, John Key might then have to sacrifice his party's candidate and suggest National supporters vote tactically for Peters so that NZ First's party votes nationwide do not go to waste.
But Peters must first be in the position of being able to win the seat he is standing in. Only Tauranga fits that description.
It means the stakes will be high in Tauranga. But when Peters is involved, we know by now to expect nothing less.
