KEY POINTS:
The see-saw nature of election campaigns is all about testing how would-be prime ministers withstand pressure. And, right now, the pressure is really piling on John Key big-time.
Following a less than ecstatic reception for National's tax policy, Key's week has ended with a nightmare confluence of events:
two polls showing the gap between National and Labour narrowing dramatically on the day the Serious Fraud Office cleared Winston Peters, the man with whom Key refuses to deal, of any suggestion of fraud.
Suddenly, Key's Sunday launch of National's campaign takes on a whole new significance. He cannot afford a flop.
Key's cause may have been helped had the Prime Minister reinstated Peters as foreign minister following the SFO's announcement. But that was never going to happen.
The Prime Minister's stated reasons that it is now too close to the election and she is still awaiting the outcome of inquiries by other agencies, including the police, tell only part of the story.
It suits both her and Peters to leave him in limbo as a minister without portfolio. That way Helen Clark does not have to explain to Peters-wary Labour supporters why she is reinstating someone who has been an embarrassment for her party.
That way Peters remains on the outside, allowing him to play the role of underdog unfairly maligned by the political and business establishment.
As noted in yesterday's Herald, Peters performs at his best with his back to the wall. He may prefer to keep it there for a while longer. He won't let it show, but the SFO's finding that there is no basis for laying fraud charges following its investigation into NZ First's handling of donations must come as considerable relief.
While he tried his best to undermine the SFO's standing and credibility, the investigation cast a shadow over his campaign.
The timing of yesterday's announcement may turn out to be a pivotal factor in determining the outcome of this election. The clearance gives Peters four solid, unencumbered weeks on the hustings to get NZ First above the magic 5 per cent and make National pay heavily for ruling him out as a coalition partner.
He has been campaigning near his best. He may still have all the charm of a rattle-snake as far as the media is concerned, but there is no sign of the moodiness that bedevilled his muddled 2005 campaign.
There is a feeling that the NZ First bandwagon could be about to start rolling. The SFO's decision releases the brakes. What Peters needs now is to find the defining issue to keep him at the heart of things rather than being pushed to the fringes by the ugly, but attention-absorbing wrestling match between the two major ones.
If he does, the pressure on Key not to lose what has looked for so long like the unlosable election will be terrifying in its intensity.