KEY POINTS:
Get the flak jackets out. The Prime Minister's announcement of the election date heralds the start of what is shaping to be the nastiest, ugliest and dirtiest election campaign in living memory.
Why? Because the two major parties line up against each other in a fashion that departs
from the norm. Look back at past elections and the results fall into two categories: a Government defeated because it was on its last legs or an Opposition party losing because it was not ready to govern.
This election has a governing party still addicted to power and an Opposition one simply desperate for power. There is also a paradox - an obvious mood for change but little real hatred of the governing party.
On one side stands Labour, with an iron-willed leader who has rallied and refreshed her tiring team and is hell-bent on retaining occupancy of the ministerial suites in the Beehive.
On the other side stands National. There are still questions about its readiness to govern, but not its determination to do so. National has been out of power for nine years. A further three years in Opposition is simply not an option.
National has positioned itself to win. Not only has it rebuilt itself as a true conservative party closer to the thinking of most New Zealanders, rather than a radical party of the right, but it also has a leader who carries none of the baggage from the last time National was in government.
The problem is that many of his front-bench colleagues do. That is why Helen Clark intends making this election about "trust". That suggests hers will be more a negative campaign than a positive one.
Her problem is that her Government has become mired in seemingly endless distractions and seems to have lost focus. That is why John Key is making this election about NZ turning a fresh page with a new Government.
There was no surprise in the date Clark has set for the election.
November 8 has been the obvious date for a long time. It allows time for the economy to start going into the upturn the Treasury is predicting for the last quarter of this year.
It allows time for Labour's tax cuts to register with voters. It allows for the possibility of a further cut in interest rates by the Reserve Bank.
Above all, it allows more time for Labour to take the gloss off Key. Election campaigns are increasingly about the leaders and leadership. Policies take a back seat. Clark may not be spectacular, but she will be safe.
Key's political instincts are solid. But they will tempt him to take some risks. Some may pay off. But he will make mistakes. They won't matter if they are minor. They will if they are major.
