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Home / Politics

<i>Fran O'Sullivan</i>: Coalition mates need to be ready for National's vision

Fran O'Sullivan
By Fran O'Sullivan
Head of Business·NZ Herald·
20 Jun, 2008 05:00 PM5 mins to read

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Fran O'Sullivan
Opinion by Fran O'Sullivan
Head of Business, NZME
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KEY POINTS:

Picture a New Zealand where profit is not a dirty word and where those who make it are not called "rich pricks".

Picture a New Zealand deeply focused on international competitiveness, where risk-taking is again exciting, where young people are enticed to stay and with a greater discipline
on government spending so the private sector can play a bigger role in the country's fortunes.

Picture a New Zealand where rolling tax cuts, possibly even indexed to inflation, become the norm just like in Australia.

National leader John Key and his deputy, Bill English, are spruiking that vision to business audiences as they continue to spurn all attempts by the Finance Minister to entice them to engage with him in Parliament on his recent Budget.

The duo's approach clearly irritates Michael Cullen even though it is finding favour with business people.

Their vision - and what it really entails - may also be too challenging for some of National's prospective coalition partners.

Think NZ First's Winston Peters, who used TVNZ's Agenda programme last week to indirectly float the notion that New Zealand could again be governed by a Coalition Government where the Prime Minister was provided by one of the minority partners, not the biggest party. A prospect that surprisingly received no media follow-through.

Key and English are doing a lot of business briefings. But Cullen claims their failure to ask a single question in Parliament on the economy in the weeks after his Budget shows they do not have a plan for the challenges facing New Zealand.

"John Key and Bill English like to talk tough on the economy on TV and at public meetings, but in Parliament where they have a real chance to hold the Government to account they have sat silent," he says.

Cullen charges English has all but admitted that he is confused by the global picture and that Key has flirted with directing the Reserve Bank Government to cut interest rates aggressively even if that would make petrol and food even more expensive.

From a Finance Minister who this week conceded he had misread just how quickly New Zealand moved into recession the charges are rather rich. But this is election year, after all.

The reality is that English, who is Cullen's counterpart, does indeed believe New Zealand is confronted by global economic uncertainties - which rational person doesn't? But he is telling business audiences this uncertainty provides an incoming National Government with the opportunity to take a fresh look at New Zealand's economic policy settings and examine just what steps are necessary to get back into the game.

English met visiting Australian Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner and Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese at last weekend's Australia New Zealand Leadership Forum. He reckons the programme the new Australian Labor Government has up its sleeve would be regarded as extremist in New Zealand.

The fact that Australia's Labor is pursuing big public/private sector partnerships and kept the increase in government spending to a mere 1 per cent in its debut Budget shows how out of step New Zealand's Labour-led Government has become with international norms, leading New Zealand into a cul de sac, he says.

There's more than an element of truth to English's charge. But beneath the obvious politicking is another factor. The Australian Treasury under Ken Henry's leadership plays a much more powerful role in its country's economic fortunes than its New Zealand counterpart. It vigorously promotes an economic policy suite that it believes will underpin Australia's success.

It was the Australian Treasury that persuaded Treasurer Wayne Swan to put Labor's big spending plans on hold and keep government spending to a minimum to ease the burden faced by Australia's central bank in bringing inflation back under control. Kevin Rudd's Government listened.

Within Australian senior circles, the NZ Treasury is seen as something of a wallflower - a department that is publicly whipped into submission by Cullen whenever it has promoted obvious economic boosters like personal tax cuts.

This suggests that if an incoming National Government wants to mount major new policies it would have to merge the Ministry of Economic Development back into Treasury so all the levers dwell again within one strong department, instead of the current approach, which reduces Treasury to something akin to an accounting organisation.

Key is also promoting a "bolder" New Zealand with a strong focus on leveraging the Asian growth century and major incentives for greenfields foreign direct investment. The question facing Key and English is whether National's potential coalition partners are up for the "step change".

Consider the Peters factor. English is crystal clear that the monetary policy targets agreement between the Government and the Reserve Bank should not be altered again if National wins the election (Peters wants changes). He's also indicated National will not buy into Labour's "what Winston wants Winston gets" approach.

Taking English's messages at face value, it seems National retains considerable hostility to Peters.

Would Labour's Helen Clark be prepared to concede the prime ministership to him?

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