Little things tell politicians their fate - the averted eye of a passer-by, the polite attention of those who are looking further ahead, blank pages in the diary. For a finance minister, nothing could be more ominous than empty seats at a business lunch a week before theBudget.
Michael Cullen went to serve his usual pre-Budget appetiser to Canterbury manufacturers on Thursday and found the table set for just 36. The high dollar might have hollowed out the country's manufactured exports but that was ridiculous. There must be a few more than 36 there.
He could not have found it amusing and he could hardly blame the hosts; a business club should not need to twist arms to provide a lunchtime audience for a finance minister. People are not interested because increasingly the coming election looks to be the Government's use-by date.
Polls certainly suggest so, though polls cannot predict the behaviour of parties after a proportional election. It remains possible that a coalition could keep Labour in power after this year. Yet something told those lunch invitees it will not be.
Call it gut feeling. They are no longer hungry to hear what Dr Cullen has in store. It is bound to be the same menu they have studied many times before: big helpings of public service employment, generous portions for the lower paid, lean pickings for tax relief, a low carbon theme.
The recipe has kept the country content but not encouraged it to develop as strongly as it might. The chef who wants to take over the kitchen has a more daring diet in mind. He has not said what it is but many are ready to sample it. Meantime, the familiar Cullenary hints echo in an unfilled room. Count the vacant seats, count the days.
