KEY POINTS:
The "no, you can't" "yes, I can" show is in full swing in Parliament as National's Bill English and Dr Cullen joust over promises of tax cuts in the Budget.
This year it's "yes I can" for Dr Cullen - but political scientists say Dr Cullen may find nobody is there to cheer him on when he finally opens the purse strings in his ninth Budget tomorrow.
Dr Cullen is the one charged with selling the Budget to the public - a critical Budget seen by commentators as one of the last chances to secure an injection of votes for Labour.
Yet far from being the party's salvation, this Budget - with expectations riding almost impossibly high - could well be Dr Cullen's Waterloo. Dr Cullen has drunk from the cup of parsimony far too many times and Victoria University lecturer Jon Johansson said it had led to "an intractable negative perception" of him.
A political science lecturer, Mr Johansson doesn't think it will matter which figure Dr Cullen pulls out of his hat tomorrow. "When you talk to people about Cullen there is real intensity and negativity. I think he is Labour's biggest liability."
He said Cullen had been prudent, including reducing debt levels and providing for future generations. However, the public were so hostile toward him now that there was no space for rational debate.
"In terms of inter-generational fairness, things like the Cullen Fund and KiwiSaver, he has done more than virtually all his predecessors. But that has not accrued any good will. So if you're Michael Cullen, it's a pretty lonely place."
Dr Claire Robinson, a political marketing specialist at Massey University, said Labour did not deliver what voters wanted in Budget '07, and many had gone to National.
"There's not much Labour can do in this Budget to lift itself from the doldrums. It will take a miracle to shift those voters back to Labour, and Michael Cullen doesn't believe it is his role to deliver miracles."
While Dr Cullen has been downplaying the size of his proposed three-year programme, National this week has been bandying about figures of $50 a week in a bid to ramp up the pressure on Cullen.
Mr Johansson and Dr Robinson said the public will be deaf to anything Labour has to offer or to arguments that National would be fiscally irresponsible to offer more.
Mr Johansson said Labour was also running into a hostile media headwind. "It would take something that makes people go 'hell's bells, that's amazing'," he said.
Four panellists say what Labour must do in tomorrow's Budget to be politically competitive in this year's election:
Laila Harre, former Alliance cabinet minister, national secretary of the National Distribution Union
Now is the time for a signature Labour Budget: long-term investment in people and infrastructure. How about no tax on the first $10,000 income, extending all child-based tax credits to all low-income households, a universal student allowance, big-time investment in energy conservation and public transport, a publicly owned broadband network and Reserve Bank changes leading to an immediate cut in interest rates? Tackling poverty and making real investments in infrastructure and skills. That would be a real Labour Budget.
Richard Prebble, former Labour minister and Act leader
The best politics is good government. The country does not need a populist, redistributive Budget which will do nothing for the economy. Dr Cullen should follow the advice of his own tax inquiry, the McLeod report, which told him to grow the economy. We need lower, flatter taxes. Tax cuts should be matched by expenditure cuts. Government expenditure is up $20 billion under Labour so how hard can it be? Reducing the civil service head count would also help; it is up 20,000.
Claire Robinson, head of the Institute of Communication Design, Massey University
Labour needs to limit John Key's opportunities to attack this Budget. As soon as the Budget is delivered Michael Cullen needs to go to ground and the Prime Minister needs to front up and go on the counterattack. She needs to be visibly demonstrating that Clark the strong and caring leader, not Cullen the party-pooper bean-counter, is steering the ship. This requires delivering a message of hope and aspiration and not simply fiscal prudence or celebration of past success.
John Tamihere, former Labour minister, broadcaster
The beauty of Labour's Budgets is that they have bought segments of demographics: students, families, non-government organisations, women, the elderly. The only way they can pull it back is to be extraordinarily ambitious in the bottom end of the tax market by making the first $15,000 or $20,000 tax free, which will benefit everyone, including the tens of thousands earning under $40,000. But Cullen has already said that won't happen. Unless they do something ballsy like that, I don't think there will be a circuit-breaker.
* Claire Trevett is a Herald political reporter
