Bill Ralston: Strategy lost in silo thinking

One of the advantages of political commentary, which must annoy the hell out of politicians, is that you generally have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight when analysing what has been going on. Whereas politicians are often forced into making their calls unaware of some of the facts or potential fallout, guys like me can be blissfully wise after the event.

However, much of the flak that's flown over more than a few of the Government's calls in the past couple of weeks was entirely predictable and foreseeable.

The first impression that springs to mind is there appears a lack of joined-up thinking in several critical areas.

Is anyone in Government asking the questions: if we do this what will be the likely reaction? If we decide to proceed, what is our strategy to defend the decision?

It's called strategy. When National was in opposition and had little to do other than try to win the next election, senior figures such as Stephen Joyce and Murray McCully were there to back up John Key and his advisers and develop strategies.

These days those senior ministers are tied up with their own busy portfolios and the PM's office is left to forge on by itself.

Where Helen Clark was a micro-manager, John Key's style is more of a CEO. He has handed out Cabinet roles and largely leaves those ministers to get on with business before the final decisions are run past Cabinet.

So decisions are largely taken in little silos, hence the lack of that joined-up thinking.

For example, the Supercity reforms. By not including at least two Maori seats in the new Auckland council surely someone in Government must have thought, "Gee, I wonder how Maori will take this?"

You didn't need to be an Einstein to realise they would scream long and loud, organise a protest hikoi and not be sucked in by the glib assurance that the new Supercity council could create Maori seats if it wanted.

Worse, the hikoi and Maori protest is fuelling general unrest over the Supercity and you can be sure the several turkeys that are currently mayors around the region will not go quietly into their early Christmas.

Backed by Labour and the Greens, whipped up by the Mt Albert byelection, the opposition to the Supercity is growing fast and the Government needs a plan to take some of the heat out of the issue before it seriously scars its image in the minds of many Aucklanders.

All anyone had to do was look at what happened in previous local body amalgamations around the city. The local opposition was vociferous. Those amalgamations only staggered through because small boroughs and counties were being swallowed by much larger cities and the weight of numbers favoured the plan.

In the case of the Supercity, however, the entire region is now being affected and there is the risk for the Government of creating a majority across Auckland who are opposed to the proposal because of the speed with which it is being rammed through and a perceived lack of consultation.

Meanwhile, the Government knew a by-election in Mt Albert was inevitable, that Labour's stocks were low and it had a chance to embarrass Phil Goff by taking a big chunk out of Labour's majority. It knew the angry opposition the overland Waterview motorway connection had caused a few years before. Why rush a decision through to scrap the expensive tunnel, just as your candidate is about to take the hustings?

Melissa Lee was kneecapped from the start, although she then amply demonstrated she had all the political instincts of a lemming by her South Auckland blatherings and her complete inability to handle the rough and tumble of an election campaign.

While the decision to make Lee the candidate was made by the party, it must have had the thumbs up from the top of the Government. What were they thinking? Were they thinking at all?

While she is a telegenic person, I think anyone who knew her would have detected a worrisome lack of experience and depth that might have caused them to reconsider making her a candidate in the white-hot atmosphere of a byelection.

Okay, raise your hands those of you who would have considered Christine Rankin a potentially controversial appointment to the Families Commission. Would you have expected Peter Dunne to blow his stack? Would you have expected the media to go nuts at the return of one of its favourite targets? Would you have expected Rankin to demurely accept the criticism or go heavily on the attack to defend herself, thereby fanning the flames?

If you answered yes to all those questions, you should be a Government strategist. They need one.