Audrey Young: Key needs to follow his own advice for Copenhagen summit

If John Key needs a reason to go to the Copenhagen climate change talks, he need only examine his own hard-hitting advice to Federated Farmers on November 18 on climate change.

"As a trading nation, we simply cannot afford to get it wrong. Our international reputation with our overseas consumers is at stake."

The Prime Minister was trying to tell them that what they do and how that is interpreted by consumers is very important, and if they are seen to be resistant to environmental concerns, consumers will punish them.

You don't have to be a rabid climate change activist to see that Key is becoming isolated on the issue as more and more leaders commit themselves to go to Copenhagen to negotiate the replacement for the Kyoto Protocol.

When Danish Prime Minister Lars Rasmussen arrived in Trinidad on Saturday for the Commonwealth summit, 85 leaders were going. By yesterday it was 90.

Even climate-change foot-dragger Canada is going now, as are the leaders of countries most important to New Zealand's economic well-being: Australia, the United States, China, Japan and Europe.

And unless Key's instincts have deserted him, he will soon see that his stubbornness in resisting requests to go will be seen as unhelpful to New Zealand's green credentials and therefore its national interest.

It is now not a matter of whether the highly accomplished negotiating minister, Tim Groser, would do the best job, as Key repeatedly says. There is no question that Groser and Cabinet colleague Nick Smith will do the best job - with or without Key at Copenhagen.

Attendance of leaders has become a matter of symbolism, a symbol of commitment to a positive outcome.

Key looks like that is not important to him.

He has been clear that he does not want his Government to be leading the world in terms of the emissions trading scheme. He was elected on that platform and has legitimately amended the emissions trading scheme accordingly. And it is strength to New Zealand's negotiating arm that it has one - unlike Australia yet.

But he is starting to look like he is out of step.

No leader wants to be associated with failure. Key says he will go only if it looks like a successful deal is to be concluded at Copenhagen.

Staying away was a call Key made when it looked like it could be a "train wreck", as Groser puts it, with people expecting too much from it. And it was a call he made before UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, Australia's Kevin Rudd, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy urged him to do so.

The situation is vastly different now. The late activity by Rasmussen at Apec to lower expectations of what could be realistically achieved in the December talks - and making it a two-step process - has ironically heightened the possibility of success at Copenhagen.

It has created political momentum and political will, and where there is political will, there is usually a political way. No one will give Key credit for parachuting in for a photo-op once others have done the hard work.

It is getting more difficult for him to explain why New Zealand is out of step on Copenhagen. And as Key often says: "Explaining is losing."

Perhaps he should start taking his own advice.