KEY POINTS:
There is more than a passing interest in the New Zealand Labour Party at what is happening with the British Labour Party following new Prime Minister Gordon Brown's attempts to rejuvenate the party from within office.
All but one of the cabinet has changed jobs and five have
been left out altogether in Brown's reinvention of his Government.
Helen Clark has a similar mission but she has no track record of making dramatic changes. Quite the opposite.
But leading a third-term Government, against a fresh and popular opponent in National leader John Key, the imperative to refresh the party is still strong.
Clark convinced the party that its steep decline in the polls in May after Michael Cullen's eighth Budget was because of the highly emotive anti-smacking debate that preceded it.
It was buoyed by the latest Herald DigiPoll, which narrowed the gap to eight points from its previous 17-point gulf.
But any sense of relief must have disappeared with the results of its own polling, indicating that as recently as last week, National was ahead of Labour by 16 points, the biggest gap in 11 years.
The anti-smacking debate has long since cooled. The dissatisfaction goes deeper, and Clark is facing the unpalatable job of assessing jobs near the very top.
Over the next three months, her mind will be focused on how to rejuvenate the Government, after which time Labour's candidate selections will begin.
Clark's trademark style has been to manage change without creating too much personal disaffection, and it is hard to see her altering that.
She was Deputy Prime Minister during Geoffrey Palmer's reshuffle in February 1990 that tipped out the old guard who weren't standing again, such as Bob Tizard and Stan Rodger, and which soured the caucus right up to the election that year.
It was a lesson she has never repeated.
Her changes will be made through candidate selections, new candidates for the list, new ministers, and new rankings of ministers.
It will be a difficult process. It may involve disappointing some friends whose times have come but don't yet recognise it. Some list MPs will be given unwinnable rankings.
Inevitably, too, the rejuvenation process raises questions about succession, and there is plenty of speculation about that.
The succession talk is not plotting talk. Clark is quite secure in her leadership at present.
There are no parallels with Britain's Blair-Brown handover. But there is some speculation about who Labour's next leader might be, and the one after that.
While there is no assumption that Labour will lose the next election, there is a reasonable assumption that if it were to lose, she would step down in 2009.
There is no clear successor in the public's mind or the wider party.
But succession issues will influence more immediate decisions around the rejuvenation.
Centrist Phil Goff is the most likely successor if Labour loses next year.
Talk of a deputy centres around Annette King or possibly a tilt to the next generation, with the appointment of either Shane Jones or Maryan Street.
There appears to be no alternative to Goff. His rival on the left for the past few years, Steve Maharey, is all but out of the picture.
Maharey does not have the grit to be a successful Opposition leader and would almost certainly lose a leadership bid against Goff if Labour lost power.
Maharey, a former university communications lecturer, is thought to be interested in pursuing his academic career. It is understood he has expressed interest in the upcoming vacancy of vice-chancellor's job at Massey University and that he might also seek an overseas post.
Succession is not an issue that is entertained by party leaders.
Clark would not be as foolish as Tony Blair was by talking about succession before the last British election, and sealing his political fate after it.
Anyway, the more immediate and important succession issue facing New Zealand Labour is that of finance minister. This needs to be resolved at least before the next election and possibly before the next Budget.
There is little prospect of Michael Cullen being pushed - he has too much stature in the party.
But an expectation has developed within the caucus that he will recognise the liability he has become on the sensitive tax issue and will step aside from the finance portfolio.
That would be the huge image change Clark is looking for.
Who would replace Cullen? Mallard as Associate Finance Minister has served a thorough apprenticeship to Cullen and long been the heir apparent. But no longer.
Mallard's star has fallen big time this term within his own caucus, if not with the public.
That is partly because of his role as Labour's hard man, partly the way he ran the Auckland stadium debacle, and partly the increasing competition he faces.
Among the next political generation, David Cunliffe and Clayton Cosgrove might expect consideration. But they are too inexperienced for such a critical job at such a critical time.
The answer to the finance succession lies in the question, "Who would you trust most to fight National in a tax debate next election?" And again, that is almost certainly Goff.
Goff was in a position to demand the Associate Finance Minister role in 2005 after losing Foreign Affairs to Winston Peters for the confidence and supply deal with New Zealand First and got the job. That was a sign he wanted it.
Goff has a lot to be happy about. He could be leader if Labour loses. He could be Minister of Finance before the next election.
There are other changes to be made: Jones and Street still have to be brought into the Cabinet. Lianne Dalziel, Chris Carter, Cunliffe and Cosgrove are among those in the waiting room for promotion within the Cabinet.
Cullen and Mallard are by no means finished. They are too valuable to be dispensed with; other challenges can be found for them in Cabinet.
But they hold the key to whether Clark can effect major changes near the top where it is needed soonest.
