Latest poll: Government steady, Labour up 4 per cent; Christopher Luxon’s favourability surges

Prime Minister of Christopher Luxon's support is going up. Photo / Marty Melville

The Government has been given a reprieve in the latest Taxpayers Union-Curia Poll, which shows that it would stay in office if an election were held today.

It follows two other polls, which showed support for the coalition falling to the point there would be a change in Government. The good news for the coalition is tempered by the fact that this latest poll showed a fairly large increase in support for Labour and static support for National and NZ First.

National was up by 0.2 points to 37.3 per cent. Labour has charged ahead by 4.3 points to 30 per cent. The Greens plummeted 4.4 points to 10.2 per cent, while Act was up 2.2 points to 9.4 per cent.

NZ First fell 0.8 points to 5.5 per cent, and Te Pāti Māori fell 1.5 points to 3.1 per cent.

That would give National 47 seats, Act 12 seats and NZ First 7 seats - enough to govern. Labour would have just 37 seats, with the Greens getting 13 seats. The result assumes Te Pāti Māori holds its six electorates.

Voters were feeling generous this month, with all the polled politicians seeing rising levels of support.

National leader Christopher Luxon’s net favourability was up 15 points to +8 per cent. Labour leader Chris Hipkins’ support also increased this month, rising 5 points to -1 per cent. Act leader David Seymour was up 4 points to -7 per cent and NZ First leader Winston Peters was up 13 points to -5 per cent.

Paul Goldsmith and Simeon Brown were also polled. They had net favourabilities of +5 per cent and +6 per cent.

NEW Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll
Decided Party Voter Over Time
National 37.3% (+0.2)
Labour 30.0% (+4.3)
Green 10.2% (-4.4)
ACT 9.4% (+2.2)
NZ First 5.5% (-0.8)
Māori 3.1% (-1.5)
For the full polling results head over to our website pic.twitter.com/BROUir9ZYR

— New Zealand Taxpayers' Union (@TaxpayersUnion) May 10, 2024

The rising cost of living continued to be the most important issue for voters, polling 35 per cent, followed by the economy on 13 per cent and Law and Order and Health, both on 7 per cent.

A net 2.5 per cent of voters think the country is heading in the right direction. That figure has been negative in recent months. The number of people who think the country is going in the right direction rose 6.2 points to 45.1 per cent, while the number of people who thought the country was heading in the wrong direction fell 5.3 points to 42.6 per cent.

The poll was conducted from Sunday, May 5, to Tuesday, May 7. The median response was collected on Monday, May 6, and had a margin of error of 3.1 per cent.

Thomas Coughlan is Deputy Political Editor and covers politics from Parliament. He has worked for the Herald since 2021 and has worked in the press gallery since 2018.