Editorial: Promises no substitute for vision, ideas

Tomorrow the two major political parties launch their official election campaigns.

As usual, they are contrivances. The campaigning has been in full swing for weeks. This time, in the minds of some, the launches could double as campaign closings.

They believe that so much of the contest has been played already that there is a real prospect that just one big move is left before the fulltime siren sounds in voters' minds. That play is National's release of its tax policy on Monday.

In the words of one wise old National Party owl, the contest might effectively be all over by the middle of next week, once the first opinion polls give their judgment on the tax cuts.

So much rides now on one policy. It is apparently no longer 'the economy, stupid', but one three-letter part of it that could make or break governments.

In the world of campaigning, where poll numbers and momentum are everything, it is understandable that tax could seem the clincher in 2005.

It is certainly possible that people will hear Monday's tax cut announcement, work out which party's calculations will be of most benefit, and then switch off politics until polling day when they claim their reward.

But other factors will come into play; they always do. And they will not necessarily be also-rans to the hip-pocket allure of winning back tax money.

Over the past week, the Herald's Voice of the Nation series, in which reporter Simon Collins took the country's pulse through 600 interviews, found four broad topics of concern among those seeking change.

One, surprise, surprise, was tax. The others were "handouts" to Maori, moral issues/political correctness, and immigration.

These are powerful, emotive concerns which do not lend themselves to easy fixes through financial windfalls in pre-election economic updates.

Neither party is likely to do enough through its tax policy alone to secure the wavering voters it will need. They must address other issues in some detail.

Labour needs to show how its handling of Maori and treaty issues meets public concern, stand up for its (conscience vote) moral legislation and demonstrate its tighter focus on attracting the right immigrants.

In the past few weeks of campaigning, little has been heard from Labour about its record. It has been concentrating on outpointing National's policies and on making new promises.

National must not be a one-hit wonder. If it fails to articulate its answers to the Voice of the Nation concerns and to show an alternative vision in health and education - rather than saying what it won't do in those areas - the electoral tide will ebb away.

Opinion poll results have been volatile since the May Budget. It may well be that Labour is this morning enjoying a surge in support from its tax relief package for families, although there is a real risk that resentment from those excluded will limit the gain.

Next week National could achieve traction, but probably not the unstoppable momentum its strategists covet.

Voters deserve more than a tactical chess match of spending promises by the big parties.

They need a campaign of ideas and vision, a positive programme that does not have electoral success as an end in itself, but a means to creating a better New Zealand.