Major changes are being proposed to electorates in the lower North Island, resulting in the disappearance of one seat.
The key announcement from a review of electorate boundaries by the Representation Commission is a proposal to create two new electorates and remove three, resulting in a net reduction of one.
These proposed changes take place in the lower North Island around Wellington.
The two new electorates — proposed to be called Kenepuru and Kāpiti — will be created from sections of Ōhāriu, Mana, and Ōtaki. Those three electorates will be removed.
Currently, Ōhāriu and Mana are held by Labour’s Greg O’Connor and Barbara Edmonds, respectively. The Ōtaki seat is held by National’s Tim Costley.
To accommodate these proposed changes, the commission wants to see Wellington’s Rongotai gain areas of the Mt Cook and Brooklyn suburbs.
Wellington Central loses those and moves northwards into the hill suburbs of Wadestown, Ngaio, and Khandallah.
The Hutt South electorate expands to take in part of Newlands, while Remutaka moves southward to incorporate a small area around Epuni.
The commission was required to reduce the number of electorates in the North Island by one, due to a change in population data at the last Census.
In a statement today, chairman Judge Kevin Kelly said the commission had addressed this “in the lower North Island where the populations of all the current electorates are below the target quota”.
“This change, coupled with some significant population changes elsewhere, has resulted in relatively substantial shifts in most electorate boundaries in the North Island, and particularly in the lower North Island and the Auckland region.”
The commission said it decided to remove one electorate from the lower North Island rather than Auckland as all electorates in the lower North Island are below or well below the target population quota. They are projected to fall further.
“Population is growing in Auckland, and if an electorate was removed, it’s possible another would have to be added back at the next boundary review,” the commission said.
“Adjusting the electorates in the lower North Island best reflects the current population distribution across the North Island and should reduce the need for the next Representation Commission to make substantial changes.”
Overall, 22 of the 72 general electorates are unchanged.
About 736,100 people in the North Island general electorates, 29,900 people in the South Island general electorates, and 3300 people in the Māori electorates are affected by the proposed changes.
In West Auckland, New Lynn, Kelston, and Te Atatū are proposed to be reconfigured and renamed Waitākere, Glendene, and Rānui.
In South Auckland, the boundaries of Panmure-Ōtāhuhu are proposed to be moved south and it is proposed to be renamed Ōtāhuhu.
The Tauranga and Bay of Plenty electorates will be reconfigured - with Tauranga in the west and Bay of Plenty in the east. Bay of Plenty will be renamed Mount Maunganui.
In the central North Island, Whanganui extends northwards to incorporate Raetihi, Ohakune, Waiōuru, Waimarino, and Ōwhango.
Taranaki-King Country gains a small area around and including Taumarunui. Rangitīkei extends southwards to incorporate Foxton/Foxton Beach, Shannon, Waitārere and Levin. Wairarapa expands slightly on its western edge to include the town of Ashhurst on the outskirts of Palmerston North.
In the South Island, the electorate of Selwyn is described as one of the fastest-growing electorates and adjustments have been made so that Christchurch electorates take in more population.
In the Māori electorates, an adjustment is proposed to the boundary between Ikaroa-Rāwhiti and Te Tai Tonga in Lower Hutt. There are no changes proposed for the other five Māori electorates.
Click here to use an interactive map of the proposed changes.
Edmonds and O’Connor spoke to media together on Tuesday afternoon, with the current Ōhāriu MP saying his seat was probably the most affected due to the way it was being broken up.
“We’re all processing it at the moment, what it means to us all. It’s politics,” O’Connor said.
He believed those in his electorate would be “disappointed”.
“Ōhāriu has been one of those iconic seats. I think people know their own seat, but the second one they know best is Ōhāriu. It’s always been strategic, even in the last election we resisted the blue wave.”
Edmonds said the feedback she was getting from Mana locals was that “it’s sad”.
“It’s the first time since MMP that that electorate has been broken up like that. So there is a lot to process.”
Asked if they would both seek Labour’s nomination to stand in Kenepuru - which would cover a lot of the current Ōhāriu and Mana seats - they both said it was too early to say.
But O’Connor indicated he didn’t believe the pair would challenge each other for the nomination.
“Whatever we decide, Barb and I will decide together. I have seen Barb in the House, I am never going to take her on,” he said.
He said those decisions would be made by others “above my pay grade”.
The Labour Party would put in a submission about the boundary changes proposed around the country, Edmonds said.
Costley reacted by saying he was “really relaxed, really comfortable, [and] confident” about the proposed changes. He said he had good connections across what is proposed to be the new Kāpiti electorate, where he is already based.
“The public will get a chance to consult and to have their say, but assuming that nothing significant changes, look [I’m] really excited at the opportunity representing everyone in Kāpiti, right down as far as Whitby goes.”
The Representation Commission regularly redraws the boundaries of electorates to ensure they have roughly the same number of people in each. This is done after each five-year population Census.
As well as population figures, the commission also considers factors such as communities of interest, infrastructure that links communities, topographic features and projected variations in the population over the next five years.
The commission met in February to set the proposed boundaries, which are now being released for public submissions.
The public has until April 27 to highlight any objections, and then until May 21 to submit any counter-objections. There are public hearings between June 9 and 18, before the final boundaries are released on August 8.
Before Tuesday’s announcement, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said it was an “independent process” and he believed National would be “well placed” and “compete very strongly” at next year’s election.
While most of the members of the Representation Commission are senior officials, such as the Chief Electoral Officer, the Government and the Opposition each have a representative.
Former National MP Roger Sowry, who has been on the commission before, represented the Government, while former Labour leader Andrew Little represented the Opposition.
How the commission is made up has previously been criticised as not fitting an MMP environment and only reflecting the perspectives of the two largest parties on a critical election matter.
Act leader David Seymour told the Herald last year he wasn’t making a personal criticism of those nominated to be on the panel, but called the system “out of date”.
“One person deciding electoral boundaries that affect all parties and could decide the outcome of the election is a recent Labour leader, and the other a former National MP,” he said.
“That might have been appropriate in the New Zealand of yesterday, but today we’d expect the rules of the election to be made in a more politically neutral way.”
Jamie Ensor is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team based at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub Press Gallery office.
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