Election 2026 poll: Gap between Government, Opposition narrows in Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll

The gap between the governing political parties and the Opposition has narrowed in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll.

Under the results released today, the bloc of National, Act and New Zealand First would receive 62 seats, down three since last month, and the bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would get 58, up three.

This poll of 1000 New Zealanders was conducted from Sunday, May 3, to Thursday, May 7. It has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

Looking at the individual party results, Labour remained ahead at 31.9%, but its result was down 1.5 points since the April poll.

National nudged up 0.2 points to 30%, NZ First was down 1.9 to 11.7%, the Green Party was up 1.9 to 9.7%, Act was down 2.5 points to 6.5%, and Te Pāti Māori was at 4.1%, up by 1.5.

Labour would get 41 seats, National 39, NZ First 15, the Greens 12, Act eight and Te Pāti Māori would get five, under the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll explanation.

In terms of the preferred Prime Minister, National’s Christopher Luxon was up 1 point to 21.5%, while Labour’s Chris Hipkins dropped 2.7 points to 19%.

Winston Peters is down 0.5 to 11.6%, Chloe Swarbrick is down 2 to 5.4%, and David Seymour is down 0.7 to 3.9%.

Today’s poll represents the first major results to be reported since Luxon survived a confidence vote within his caucus in mid-April.

Luxon raised a formal motion of confidence during a nearly three-hour meeting in Parliament of National MPs. That followed intense speculation over Luxon’s leadership, driven by poor polling.

A series of low polls for National has been released in recent months, including a Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll in March that had the party at 28.4%. In its April poll, National had risen to 29.8%.

A 1News-Verian poll, which came out in the days before the confidence vote, had National on 30%, down 4 points from its previous poll.

In several of the polls, the centre-right bloc has still been able to govern, bolstered by NZ First’s rising support. However, the Verian poll had the left in a position to gain power.

Sources previously told the Herald that National senior whip Stuart Smith had last month attempted and failed to contact Luxon about wavering support in caucus. Smith - days after the publication of that story - denied this.

Following the caucus vote, Luxon declared speculation over his leadership was “now closed” and said he wouldn’t engage with what he described as a “media soap opera”.

Later in April, the Herald revealed Luxon held Beehive crisis talks with Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters after Peters’ office released emails showing Luxon wanted to shift the Government’s position to show “explicit public support” for the United States-led war on Iran days after the US and Israel launched air strikes.

A spokesman for Peters said Luxon’s support would have “run counter to New Zealand’s national interests”.

However, Luxon’s office said the emails mischaracterised Luxon’s position and was critical of Peters for releasing them.

“The PM met with Mr Peters this evening to make that point and Mr Peters acknowledged he made a mistake,” the spokesman said.

Since then, Luxon has also been in Singapore where he met its Prime Minister, Lawrence Wong, and formally signed a deal intended to ensure essential supplies like food and fuel will continue to flow between the countries during a crisis.

Jamie Ensor is the NZ Herald’s Chief Political Reporter, based in the Press Gallery at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub Press Gallery office. He was a finalist this year for Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards.